Dota 2: potn9ki vs Zenith (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Zenith (45%) · Zenith at 54¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

potn9ki47¢Zenith53¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zenith

Consensus Traders

Zenith 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$647.67

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 53.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralZenith at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zenith

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki47%

Zenith54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zenith5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,662

Combined PnL-$775.1

potn9ki6 traders

Total Value$987.73

Total Shares1,863

Combined PnL+$127.43

Zenith — 45%potn9ki — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Zenith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalepotn9ki 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrpotn9ki 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000potn9ki 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO ColdBloodedARB<$100	potn9kiavg 66.9¢	$4.6K	$3.3K	$-1.3K	72% 158-60 (218)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 66.9¢	$3.5K	$2.5K	$-1.0K
└ Zenith leg	Zenithavg 69.9¢	$1.1K	$815.33	-$253.45
Neimuking	Zenithavg 63.5¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$683.27	60% 70-46 (116)
AM ameisgoat11CTR	potn9kiavg 50.4¢	$528.57	$561.09	+$25.12	52% 8958-8128 (17086)
JA JabJabich	Zenithavg 71¢	$568.29	$408	-$140.25	61% 204-132 (336)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	potn9kiavg 32.4¢	$163.74	$242.43	+$78.68	64% 2032-1134 (3166)
38 38791873984189	Zenithavg 39.8¢	$214.01	$127.64	+$45.49	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
CI cigarettesCTR	potn9kiavg 39.8¢	$89.43	$107.93	+$16.25	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
LR lryyy<$100	Zenithavg 55.7¢	$71.97	$73.07	+$1.1	47% 9510-10646 (20156)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 41.4¢	$55.67	$64.57	+$7.12	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 68.4¢	$7.04	$6.77	-$0.13	47% 7493-8302 (15795)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Zenithavg 33.3¢	$4.28	$6.55	+$1.84	48% 7443-7977 (15420)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 57¢	$3.63	$4.95	+$0.4	54% 10365-8691 (19056)

ColdBloodedARB<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$4,556.47

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

72%

158-60 (218)

Both legs:

potn9ki$3,475.3666.9¢$-1.0K

Zenith$1,117.8969.9¢-$253.45

Neimuking

Zenith

Invested

$1,576.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$683.27

Record

60%

70-46 (116)

ameisgoat11CTR

potn9ki

Invested

$528.57

Value

$561.09

PnL

+$25.12

Record

52%

8958-8128 (17086)

JabJabich

Zenith

Invested

$568.29

Value

$408

PnL

-$140.25

Record

61%

204-132 (336)

darkumbreon88CTR

potn9ki

Invested

$163.74

Value

$242.43

PnL

+$78.68

Record

64%

2032-1134 (3166)

38791873984189

Zenith

Invested

$214.01

Value

$127.64

PnL

+$45.49

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

cigarettesCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$89.43

Value

$107.93

PnL

+$16.25

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

lryyy<$100

Zenith

Invested

$71.97

Value

$73.07

PnL

+$1.1

Record

47%

9510-10646 (20156)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$55.67

Value

$64.57

PnL

+$7.12

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

GaditimaCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$7.04

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

7493-8302 (15795)

Oddstorm<$100

Zenith

Invested

$4.28

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$1.84

Record

48%

7443-7977 (15420)

Pan9XCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$3.63

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

10365-8691 (19056)

Research grade

NeutralZenith at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Zenith

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Zenith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalepotn9ki 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrpotn9ki 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000potn9ki 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zenith wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.