Dota 2: Zenith vs Team Synapse (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (86%) · Team Synapse at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10

Zenith31¢Team Synapse69¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 86%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$91.65

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 69¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

6 of 7 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zenith31%

Team Synapse69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,105

Combined PnL+$86.91

Zenith1 trader

Total Value$10.33

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$4.74

Team Synapse — 86%Zenith — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Team Synapse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Synapse 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZenith 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Zenith 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 61.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$103.34	23% 142-486 (628)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 61.5¢	$765.52	$983.01	+$217.49
└ Zenith leg	Zenithavg 39.3¢	$651.56	$348	-$320.84
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Synapseavg 69.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$5.91	48% 473-515 (988)
XU xuxuntao	Team Synapseavg 61.7¢	$500	$608.18	+$108.18	29% 16-40 (56)
alpheclabs2	Team Synapseavg 78.3¢	$475.94	$461.79	-$14.15	48% 66-71 (137)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 76.9¢	$370.99	$345.32	-$25.67	56% 3777-2945 (6722)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 76.9¢	$275.13	$248.55	-$26.58
└ Zenith leg	Zenithavg 30.2¢	$95.86	$96.77	+$0.91
BA BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100	Zenithavg 17.7¢	$590.23	$149.51	+$36.41	16% 10-54 (64)
└ Zenith leg	Zenithavg 17.7¢	$59.77	$108	+$59.99
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 83.4¢	$50.88	$41.5	-$23.58
JU JuiceFarm	Team Synapseavg 84¢	$101.06	$90.23	-$10.83	— 4-1 (5)
LR lryyy<$100	Team Synapseavg 79¢	$24.2	$22	-$2.2	50% 128-129 (257)
TE testBruno2CTR<$100	Zenithavg 26.1¢	$34.44	$10.33	+$4.74	13% 4-28 (32)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Team Synapseavg 85¢	$2.24	$2.24	+$0	10% 39-370 (409)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,448.94

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$103.34

Record

23%

142-486 (628)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$765.5261.5¢+$217.49

Zenith$651.5639.3¢-$320.84

RandomVibecoder

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,136.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$5.91

Record

48%

473-515 (988)

xuxuntao

Team Synapse

Invested

$500

Value

$608.18

PnL

+$108.18

Record

29%

16-40 (56)

alpheclabs2

Team Synapse

Invested

$475.94

Value

$461.79

PnL

-$14.15

Record

48%

66-71 (137)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$370.99

Value

$345.32

PnL

-$25.67

Record

56%

3777-2945 (6722)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$275.1376.9¢-$26.58

Zenith$95.8630.2¢+$0.91

BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100

Zenith

Invested

$590.23

Value

$149.51

PnL

+$36.41

Record

16%

10-54 (64)

Both legs:

Zenith$59.7717.7¢+$59.99

Team Synapse$50.8883.4¢-$23.58

JuiceFarm

Team Synapse

Invested

$101.06

Value

$90.23

PnL

-$10.83

Record

—

4-1 (5)

lryyy<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$24.2

Value

$22

PnL

-$2.2

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

testBruno2CTR<$100

Zenith

Invested

$34.44

Value

$10.33

PnL

+$4.74

Record

13%

4-28 (32)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0

Record

10%

39-370 (409)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

6 of 7 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Team Synapse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Synapse 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZenith 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Zenith 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.