Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Hull City AFC (67%) · Hull City AFC at 59¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 7

Arsenal FC41¢Hull City AFC59¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hull City AFC

Consensus Traders

Hull City AFC 67%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

-$676.66

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 59¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralHull City AFC at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hull City AFC

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arsenal FC41%

Hull City AFC59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hull City AFC8 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares22,962

Combined PnL-$465.89

Arsenal FC4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares8,607

Combined PnL-$210.77

Hull City AFC — 67%Arsenal FC — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hull City AFC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHull City AFC 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrHull City AFC 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedHull City AFC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hull City AFC 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Hull City AFCavg 60.2¢	$12.4K	$11.9K	-$454.79	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
CH ch27erCTR	Arsenal FCavg 43.2¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$132.02	56% 31-24 (55)
SE sentrio	Hull City AFCavg 58.6¢	$993.98	$983.92	-$10.07	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
LooksMaxing101CTR	Arsenal FCavg 45.2¢	$904.64	$820	-$84.64	51% 888-849 (1737)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Arsenal FCavg 40.1¢	$261.8	$267.66	+$5.86	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
0xheavy888	Hull City AFCavg 59¢	$235.99	$233.99	-$2	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
38 38791873984189<$100	Hull City AFCavg 60¢	$87.66	$84.77	+$0.72	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Hull City AFCavg 58¢	$52.65	$52.65	+$0	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hull City AFCavg 59.7¢	$23.16	$23.44	+$0.28	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hull City AFCavg 58¢	$6.73	$6.73	+$0	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
BA bands1<$100	Hull City AFCavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.93	-$0.03	49% 419-429 (848)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Arsenal FCavg 39¢	$0.64	$0.67	+$0.03	50% 28937-28754 (57691)

ferrariChampions2026

Hull City AFC

Invested

$12,393.21

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$454.79

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

ch27erCTR

Arsenal FC

Invested

$2,572.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$132.02

Record

56%

31-24 (55)

sentrio

Hull City AFC

Invested

$993.98

Value

$983.92

PnL

-$10.07

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

LooksMaxing101CTR

Arsenal FC

Invested

$904.64

Value

$820

PnL

-$84.64

Record

51%

888-849 (1737)

FlaznorpCTR

Arsenal FC

Invested

$261.8

Value

$267.66

PnL

+$5.86

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

0xheavy888

Hull City AFC

Invested

$235.99

Value

$233.99

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

38791873984189<$100

Hull City AFC

Invested

$87.66

Value

$84.77

PnL

+$0.72

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

darkumbreon88<$100

Hull City AFC

Invested

$52.65

Value

$52.65

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

ghorrock<$100

Hull City AFC

Invested

$23.16

Value

$23.44

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Pan9X<$100

Hull City AFC

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.73

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

bands1<$100

Hull City AFC

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

419-429 (848)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Research grade

NeutralHull City AFC at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hull City AFC

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hull City AFC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHull City AFC 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrHull City AFC 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedHull City AFC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hull City AFC 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hull City AFC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.