Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 90¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 7

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$325.91

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 90¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares10,246

Combined PnL+$327.56

Over5 traders

Total Value$736.33

Total Shares7,656

Combined PnL-$1.65

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 88.3¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	-$77.99	66% 250-131 (381)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 77.1¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$405.07	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
RN1	Underavg 90¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 10.6¢	$390.44	$368.08	-$22.35	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
DV dv-pmCTR	Overavg 12¢	$306.01	$216.76	-$89.25	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 3.9¢	$31.85	$81.73	+$49.87	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 1.2¢	$8.23	$68.6	+$60.37	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 87¢	$16.89	$17.65	+$0.76	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 94¢	$17.53	$11.7	-$0.01	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 87¢	$6.27	$6.1	-$0.27	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 12.5¢	$1.45	$1.16	-$0.29	49% 1800-1900 (3700)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$4,589.92

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$77.99

Record

66%

250-131 (381)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,411.51

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$405.07

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,698.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$390.44

Value

$368.08

PnL

-$22.35

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

dv-pmCTR

Over

Invested

$306.01

Value

$216.76

PnL

-$89.25

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.85

Value

$81.73

PnL

+$49.87

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.23

Value

$68.6

PnL

+$60.37

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$16.89

Value

$17.65

PnL

+$0.76

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$17.53

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$6.27

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.