Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 54% (95–82, n=177) · PM monthly #762 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$25.8K
Record
95W / 82L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 177 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1526
Source
PM monthly #762
Trades
55
Markets
190
Volume
$239.1K
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $5.5K · now 8¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $3.1K · now 5¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?No $1.9K · now 59¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (74% of 21)
- Chiefs vs. BroncosChiefs $1.5K · now 51¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (80% of 16)
- Spread: Commanders (-6.5)Commanders $1.4K · now 47¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Eagles)
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Raiders $1.2K · now 50¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
- Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $990 · now 32¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $550 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
Specialties
93 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 46¢- Soccer
+55 pts
side won 100% of 35 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +55%
- NBA
+52 pts
side won 100% of 39 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +48%
- NFL
+56 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +55%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 100% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 46%(won 100% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 100% of 35)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.