Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $14K held · ends Dec 31

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$409.7

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 96.4¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares14,783

Combined PnL+$409.7

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

328 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 94¢	$9.4K	$9.6K	+$235	85% 605-108 (713)
debased	Noavg 81¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$72.65	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 95¢	$950	$963.5	+$13.01	77% 1408-416 (1824)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93.6¢	$768.2	$910.88	+$31.86	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
archaic	Noavg 89¢	$528.92	$535.83	+$6.91	85% 1906-339 (2245)
IM immanuelcan	No	$336.35	$336.35	+$28.96	53% 906-789 (1695)
TT tttt123	Noavg 84¢	$103.82	$119.09	+$15.26	72% 1535-585 (2120)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$72.97	$76.42	+$3.45	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
OL OLOTH<$100	Noavg 92¢	$55.2	$57.81	+$2.61	96% 757-31 (788)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$9,400

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$235

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

debased

Invested

$1,536.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$72.65

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$950

Value

$963.5

PnL

+$13.01

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$768.2

Value

$910.88

PnL

+$31.86

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

archaic

Invested

$528.92

Value

$535.83

PnL

+$6.91

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

immanuelcan

Invested

$336.35

Value

$336.35

PnL

+$28.96

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

tttt123

Invested

$103.82

Value

$119.09

PnL

+$15.26

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$72.97

Value

$76.42

PnL

+$3.45

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

OLOTH<$100

Invested

$55.2

Value

$57.81

PnL

+$2.61

Record

96%

757-31 (788)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

328 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.