Will SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$307.03

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 99.8¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,833

Combined PnL+$286.2

Yes4 traders

Total Value$72.05

Total Shares13,463

Combined PnL-$593.23

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 85.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$273.31	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1	Noavg 99.8¢	$778.81	$779.43	+$0.62	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 86¢	$122	$121.63	+$9.76	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$404.19	$56.87	-$347.32	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 92.5¢	$200	$12.96	+$0.93	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$208.55	$9.49	-$199.06	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 86¢	$7.14	$7.12	-$0.11	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.73	$5.55	+$0.82	55% 839-699 (1538)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 87¢	$5	$4.99	+$0.64	76% 4861-1510 (6371)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5	$4.99	+$0.24	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$16.17	$4.31	-$11.86	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$394.3	$1.38	-$34.98	48% 2032-2230 (4262)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,896.79

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$273.31

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1

Invested

$778.81

Value

$779.43

PnL

+$0.62

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$122

Value

$121.63

PnL

+$9.76

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$404.19

Value

$56.87

PnL

-$347.32

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Pan9X

Invested

$200

Value

$12.96

PnL

+$0.93

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$208.55

Value

$9.49

PnL

-$199.06

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$0.82

Record

55%

839-699 (1538)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.64

Record

76%

4861-1510 (6371)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.17

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$11.86

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$394.3

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$34.98

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.