FC Utrecht vs. NEC: Both Teams to Score

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 73¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Yes73¢No27¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$545.6

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 72.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,947

Combined PnL+$138.36

No7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,464

Combined PnL+$407.24

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 68¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$72.88	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 34.1¢	$46.85	$1.2K	+$357.97	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 63.5¢	$600.69	$605.42	+$4.73	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 67.4¢	$410.25	$405	-$5.25	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 34¢	$91.88	$384.73	+$89.07	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Yesavg 50¢	$204	$270	+$66	56% 195-151 (346)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 34.6¢	$217.12	$175.91	-$41.21	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$55.04	$55.9	+$0.86	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$38.99	$40.18	+$1.19	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$3.4	$3.25	-$0.15	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.84	$1.35	-$0.48	53% 70182-61748 (131930)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,406.29

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$72.88

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$46.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$357.97

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$600.69

Value

$605.42

PnL

+$4.73

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$410.25

Value

$405

PnL

-$5.25

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$91.88

Value

$384.73

PnL

+$89.07

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Yes

Invested

$204

Value

$270

PnL

+$66

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$217.12

Value

$175.91

PnL

-$41.21

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$55.04

Value

$55.9

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$38.99

Value

$40.18

PnL

+$1.19

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.