Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Utrecht vs. NEC: O/U 2.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $464 held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$463.85

Combined PnL

-$694.14

Smart Money Entry

22.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$248.8

Total Shares399

Combined PnL-$48.66

Under9 traders

Total Value$215.05

Total Shares3,520

Combined PnL-$645.48

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Overavg 67¢	$201	$141.16	-$42.49	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 89.2¢	$113.82	$107.64	-$6.18	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$69.3	$74.89	+$5.59	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 20.7¢	$477.22	$56.88	-$420.34	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 13¢	$125.08	$48.37	-$76.71	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$10.17	$22	+$0.03	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 37.5¢	$25.73	$6.52	-$19.21	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$4.75	$4.97	+$0.22	53% 2982-2598 (5580)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$1.25	-$3.75	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
RN1CTR	Underavg 42.5¢	$104.09	$0.12	-$103.97	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25.7¢	$27.39	$0.05	-$27.34	48% 2117-2339 (4456)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$201

Value

$141.16

PnL

-$42.49

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$113.82

Value

$107.64

PnL

-$6.18

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.3

Value

$74.89

PnL

+$5.59

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$477.22

Value

$56.88

PnL

-$420.34

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$125.08

Value

$48.37

PnL

-$76.71

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.17

Value

$22

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.73

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$19.21

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

2982-2598 (5580)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$104.09

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$103.97

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.39

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$27.34

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.