Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Le Mans FC (82%) · Le Mans FC at 63¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 8

AS Monaco FC38¢Le Mans FC62¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Le Mans FC

Consensus Traders

Le Mans FC 82%

Total Value

$22.5K

Combined PnL

$29.96

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 62.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLe Mans FC at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Le Mans FC

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

AS Monaco FC38%

Le Mans FC63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Le Mans FC9 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares25,305

Combined PnL+$740.57

AS Monaco FC2 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares14,097

Combined PnL-$710.61

Le Mans FC — 82%AS Monaco FC — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Le Mans FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLe Mans FC 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrLe Mans FC 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Le Mans FC 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Le Mans FCavg 61.2¢	$6.1K	$6.4K	+$374.02	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
FL Flaznorp	Le Mans FCavg 63.4¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$10.66	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	AS Monaco FCavg 41.6¢	$5.8K	$5.1K	-$710.9	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Le Mans FCavg 65.7¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$116.22	49% 507-531 (1038)
RN1	Le Mans FCavg 58¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$173.19	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
AN Anon455	Le Mans FCavg 58.5¢	$292.5	$317.5	+$25	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
38 38791873984189	Le Mans FCavg 60¢	$253.61	$269.93	+$16.31	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Le Mans FCavg 58¢	$67.05	$73.4	+$6.36	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
PA Pan9X<$100	Le Mans FCavg 60.2¢	$72.83	$62.71	+$17.49	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Le Mans FCavg 67¢	$44.46	$45.79	+$1.33	55% 839-699 (1538)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	AS Monaco FCavg 32¢	$29.85	$26.48	+$0.29	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

GoalLineGhost

Le Mans FC

Invested

$6,065.69

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$374.02

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Flaznorp

Le Mans FC

Invested

$5,640.06

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$10.66

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

omnibus-076daaCTR

AS Monaco FC

Invested

$5,833.54

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$710.9

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Multicoloured-Serf

Le Mans FC

Invested

$2,345.85

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$116.22

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

RN1

Le Mans FC

Invested

$1,826.42

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$173.19

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Anon455

Le Mans FC

Invested

$292.5

Value

$317.5

PnL

+$25

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

38791873984189

Le Mans FC

Invested

$253.61

Value

$269.93

PnL

+$16.31

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

SnakeBall<$100

Le Mans FC

Invested

$67.05

Value

$73.4

PnL

+$6.36

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Pan9X<$100

Le Mans FC

Invested

$72.83

Value

$62.71

PnL

+$17.49

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

RichieRicher<$100

Le Mans FC

Invested

$44.46

Value

$45.79

PnL

+$1.33

Record

55%

839-699 (1538)

sentrioCTR<$100

AS Monaco FC

Invested

$29.85

Value

$26.48

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

NeutralLe Mans FC at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Le Mans FC

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Le Mans FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLe Mans FC 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrLe Mans FC 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Le Mans FC 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Le Mans FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.