Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will CS Cartaginés win on 2026-11-05?
Resolved No. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
No 78%
1 arb excluded
$3.4K
$365.74
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $2.0K | $1.7K | -$261.26 | 53% 61517-53815 (115332) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 87.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$215.44 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $476.7 | — | -$476.7 | |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 70.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$345.53 | 51% 26028-24687 (50715) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 70.1¢ | $120.69 | $172.22 | +$51.53 | 49% 14771-15500 (30271) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $37.59 | $47.25 | +$9.66 | 51% 37791-37025 (74816) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.2¢ | $44.23 | — | -$44.23 | 51% 6382-6167 (12549) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $14.14 | $15.94 | +$1.8 | 51% 1484-1427 (2911) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $8.4 | $10.4 | +$2 | 50% 1498-1469 (2967) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $4.69 | $7.1 | +$2.41 | 52% 1535-1393 (2928) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $4.14 | $5 | +$0.86 | 50% 1440-1447 (2887) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $3.82 | — | -$3.82 | 50% 21258-21529 (42787) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,986.69
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$261.26
Record
53%
61517-53815 (115332)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,067.62
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$345.53
Record
51%
26028-24687 (50715)
Invested
$120.69
Value
$172.22
PnL
+$51.53
Record
49%
14771-15500 (30271)
Invested
$37.59
Value
$47.25
PnL
+$9.66
Record
51%
37791-37025 (74816)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$44.23
Value
—
PnL
-$44.23
Record
51%
6382-6167 (12549)
Invested
$14.14
Value
$15.94
PnL
+$1.8
Record
51%
1484-1427 (2911)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$2
Record
50%
1498-1469 (2967)
Invested
$4.69
Value
$7.1
PnL
+$2.41
Record
52%
1535-1393 (2928)
Invested
$4.14
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.86
Record
50%
1440-1447 (2887)
Invested
$3.82
Value
—
PnL
-$3.82
Record
50%
21258-21529 (42787)