Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 59¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 36%
$22.8K
-$994.95
61.6¢ → 59¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $16.0K | $15.7K | -$311.5 | 47% 206-230 (436) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $4.3K | $4.2K | -$122.89 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 73.2¢ | $1.2K | $981.17 | -$235.58 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $861.28 | $861.28 | -$0 | 49% 14983-15895 (30878) |
PE pelik | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.2K | $723.37 | -$501.45 | 99% 5182-74 (5256) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $4.04 | $184.53 | +$180.49 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $63.92 | $62.09 | -$1.83 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $107.46 | $44.6 | +$0.54 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $29.09 | $29.09 | +$0 | 51% 6512-6277 (12789) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $17.4 | $14.76 | -$2.64 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $8.3 | $8.2 | -$0.1 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
Invested
$15,997.43
Value
$15.7K
PnL
-$311.5
Record
47%
206-230 (436)
RN1CTRInvested
$4,288.49
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$122.89
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$1,216.74
Value
$981.17
PnL
-$235.58
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$861.28
Value
$861.28
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
14983-15895 (30878)
Invested
$1,224.82
Value
$723.37
PnL
-$501.45
Record
99%
5182-74 (5256)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$184.53
PnL
+$180.49
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$63.92
Value
$62.09
PnL
-$1.83
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$107.46
Value
$44.6
PnL
+$0.54
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$29.09
Value
$29.09
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
6512-6277 (12789)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$14.76
PnL
-$2.64
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$8.3
Value
$8.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.