Will OFI Crete win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 66¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 8

Yes35¢No65¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.5K

Combined PnL

$551.04

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 65.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares32,397

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares27,277

Combined PnL-$630.72

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 61.8¢	$19.9K	$21.1K	+$1.2K	48% 214-236 (450)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 38¢	$15.9K	$5.8K	-$238.95	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 38.5¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$383.03	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 38.8¢	$4.7K	$2.1K	-$64.57	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$78.98
└ No leg	Noavg 62.4¢	$827.19	$841.64	+$14.41
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 37.9¢	$227.59	$219.54	-$8.04	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
RL RLWG	Noavg 62¢	$110	$69.85	+$1.65	50% 8554-8723 (17277)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.5¢	$35.32	$12.89	-$0.7	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 52¢	$12.31	$12.5	+$0.19	53% 2967-2581 (5548)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$6.34	$6.39	+$0.05	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$19,949.12

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

214-236 (450)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$15,930

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$238.95

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,174.06

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$383.03

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,697.49

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$64.57

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Yes$1,309.7238.8¢-$78.98

No$827.1962.4¢+$14.41

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$227.59

Value

$219.54

PnL

-$8.04

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

RLWG

Invested

$110

Value

$69.85

PnL

+$1.65

Record

50%

8554-8723 (17277)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.32

Value

$12.89

PnL

-$0.7

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$12.31

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

2967-2581 (5548)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$6.34

Value

$6.39

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.