Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 4?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 60¢ · $827 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$827.21
$16.81
62.5¢ → 60¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 74.9¢ | $546.8 | $463.44 | -$82.58 | 42% 779-1075 (1854) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 63.1¢ | $234.12 | $207.5 | -$8.47 | 60% 11476-7594 (19070) |
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 19.1¢ | $51.59 | $127.27 | +$108.27 | 51% 3479-3357 (6836) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $11.02 | $11.39 | +$0.37 | 50% 473-472 (945) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $10.34 | $9.62 | -$0.72 | 53% 9512-8365 (17877) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $3 | -$0.1 | 62% 14246-8888 (23134) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3 | -$0.05 | 58% 2445-1781 (4226) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $2 | +$0.1 | 57% 18305-13557 (31862) |
Invested
$546.8
Value
$463.44
PnL
-$82.58
Record
42%
779-1075 (1854)
Invested
$234.12
Value
$207.5
PnL
-$8.47
Record
60%
11476-7594 (19070)
Invested
$51.59
Value
$127.27
PnL
+$108.27
Record
51%
3479-3357 (6836)
Invested
$11.02
Value
$11.39
PnL
+$0.37
Record
50%
473-472 (945)
Invested
$10.34
Value
$9.62
PnL
-$0.72
Record
53%
9512-8365 (17877)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
62%
14246-8888 (23134)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3
PnL
-$0.05
Record
58%
2445-1781 (4226)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.1
Record
57%
18305-13557 (31862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.