Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 3?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$267.51

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 0.2¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$867.21

Total Shares1,699

Combined PnL+$179.32

No7 traders

Total Value$410.89

Total Shares517

Combined PnL+$88.19

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 62.8¢	$443.75	$436.74	-$6.07	16% 427-2300 (2727)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 57¢	$224.31	$343.62	+$119.31	48% 2103-2279 (4382)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 68.8¢	$241.07	$258.31	+$17.25	53% 9602-8425 (18027)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.8¢	$152.78	$139.96	-$12.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.6¢	$88.29	$118.36	+$30.07
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 48.9¢	$146.6	$155.13	+$34.97	60% 11480-7595 (19075)
balthazar	Noavg 78.2¢	$86.02	$109.78	+$23.76	53% 28631-25560 (54191)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$62.8	$79.84	+$17.04	54% 22028-19125 (41153)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 48.4¢	$7.11	$71.07	+$63.96	42% 779-1075 (1854)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$59.96	$42.16	+$16.56	58% 18577-13713 (32290)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$33.13	$17.01	-$1.83	30% 2095-4886 (6981)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 67.8¢	$8.58	$9.92	+$1.34	59% 1673-1185 (2858)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.9¢	$5.26	$4.74	-$0.51	39% 974-1548 (2522)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.26	$3.78	-$0.48	58% 2445-1781 (4226)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5.03	$3.19	-$1.84	38% 947-1564 (2511)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yes	$1.12	$1.12	+$1.3	79% 11949-3142 (15091)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$443.75

Value

$436.74

PnL

-$6.07

Record

16%

427-2300 (2727)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$224.31

Value

$343.62

PnL

+$119.31

Record

48%

2103-2279 (4382)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$241.07

Value

$258.31

PnL

+$17.25

Record

53%

9602-8425 (18027)

Both legs:

No$152.7868.8¢-$12.82

Yes$88.2927.6¢+$30.07

qwen300.fund

Invested

$146.6

Value

$155.13

PnL

+$34.97

Record

60%

11480-7595 (19075)

balthazar

Invested

$86.02

Value

$109.78

PnL

+$23.76

Record

53%

28631-25560 (54191)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$62.8

Value

$79.84

PnL

+$17.04

Record

54%

22028-19125 (41153)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$7.11

Value

$71.07

PnL

+$63.96

Record

42%

779-1075 (1854)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$59.96

Value

$42.16

PnL

+$16.56

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$33.13

Value

$17.01

PnL

-$1.83

Record

30%

2095-4886 (6981)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.58

Value

$9.92

PnL

+$1.34

Record

59%

1673-1185 (2858)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.26

Value

$4.74

PnL

-$0.51

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$4.26

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.48

Record

58%

2445-1781 (4226)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$1.84

Record

38%

947-1564 (2511)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$1.3

Record

79%

11949-3142 (15091)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.