Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Evgenii Tiurnev, while the market favors Alessandro Bellifemine (62%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Antalya: Evgenii Tiurnev vs Alessandro Bellifemine

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Evgenii Tiurnev (67%) · Evgenii Tiurnev at 38¢ · $58K held · ends Nov 18

Evgenii Tiurnev38¢Alessandro Bellifemine62¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Evgenii Tiurnev

Consensus Traders

Evgenii Tiurnev 67%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$58.1K

Combined PnL

$7.3K

Smart Money Entry

38.8¢ → 38¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralEvgenii Tiurnev at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Evgenii Tiurnev

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Alessandro Bellifemine 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Evgenii Tiurnev38%

Alessandro Bellifemine62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Evgenii Tiurnev2 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares46,544

Combined PnL+$264.58

Alessandro Bellifemine1 trader

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares27,494

Combined PnL+$7.0K

Evgenii Tiurnev — 67%Alessandro Bellifemine — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI finzemCTR	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 38.8¢	$18.0K	$18.3K	+$309.24	—
CR crazyoddslover	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 39¢	$17.4K	$16.4K	+$7.0K	— 7-7 (14)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 63¢	$16.8K	$15.1K	$-1.1K	51% 3697-3538 (7235)
└ Evgenii Tiurnev leg	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 63¢	$12.0K	$10.8K	$-1.2K
└ Alessandro Bellifemine leg	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 42¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$100
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8ARB<$100	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 51.4¢	$3.3K	$2.9K	+$134.62	— 5-0 (5)
└ Alessandro Bellifemine leg	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 47¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$585.98
└ Evgenii Tiurnev leg	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 51.4¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$451.36
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 67.5¢	$2.8K	$2.0K	-$794.71	53% 5614-5046 (10660)
└ Evgenii Tiurnev leg	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 68.8¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$172.71
└ Alessandro Bellifemine leg	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 67.5¢	$1.6K	$963.5	-$622
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 67.4¢	$2.6K	$2.0K	-$639.48	53% 1763-1567 (3330)
└ Alessandro Bellifemine leg	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 67.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$96.16
└ Evgenii Tiurnev leg	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 64.8¢	$1.3K	$747.39	-$543.32
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 65.5¢	$2.5K	$659.65	-$785.41	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
└ Alessandro Bellifemine leg	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 65.5¢	$452.01	$410.66	-$298.74
└ Evgenii Tiurnev leg	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 57.6¢	$354.29	$248.99	-$486.67
US User7429ARB<$100	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 62.9¢	$587.25	$405.41	-$175.15	23% 98-336 (434)
└ Evgenii Tiurnev leg	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 62.9¢	$470.48	$303.04	-$168.01
└ Alessandro Bellifemine leg	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 63.7¢	$109.52	$102.37	-$7.15
LR lryyyARB<$100	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 56.8¢	$440.92	$348.17	-$92.75	46% 225-259 (484)
└ Alessandro Bellifemine leg	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 56.8¢	$349.79	$243.33	-$106.46
└ Evgenii Tiurnev leg	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 52.6¢	$91.13	$104.84	+$13.71
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 36.3¢	$295.52	$88.43	-$44.66	— 2-3 (5)

finzemCTR

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$17,971.47

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$309.24

Record

—

crazyoddslover

Alessandro Bellifemine

Invested

$17,445.21

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$7.0K

Record

—

7-7 (14)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$16,799.94

Value

$15.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

3697-3538 (7235)

Both legs:

Evgenii Tiurnev$11,978.4163¢$-1.2K

Alessandro Bellifemine$4,199.9942¢+$100

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8ARB<$100

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$3,319.36

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$134.62

Record

—

5-0 (5)

Both legs:

Alessandro Bellifemine$1,277.4147¢+$585.98

Evgenii Tiurnev$1,612.551.4¢-$451.36

cigarettesARB<$100

Alessandro Bellifemine

Invested

$2,799.84

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$794.71

Record

53%

5614-5046 (10660)

Both legs:

Evgenii Tiurnev$1,214.3468.8¢-$172.71

Alessandro Bellifemine$1,585.567.5¢-$622

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Alessandro Bellifemine

Invested

$2,606.24

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$639.48

Record

53%

1763-1567 (3330)

Both legs:

Alessandro Bellifemine$1,315.5367.4¢-$96.16

Evgenii Tiurnev$1,290.7164.8¢-$543.32

38791873984189ARB<$100

Alessandro Bellifemine

Invested

$2,453.81

Value

$659.65

PnL

-$785.41

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Both legs:

Alessandro Bellifemine$452.0165.5¢-$298.74

Evgenii Tiurnev$354.2957.6¢-$486.67

User7429ARB<$100

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$587.25

Value

$405.41

PnL

-$175.15

Record

23%

98-336 (434)

Both legs:

Evgenii Tiurnev$470.4862.9¢-$168.01

Alessandro Bellifemine$109.5263.7¢-$7.15

lryyyARB<$100

Alessandro Bellifemine

Invested

$440.92

Value

$348.17

PnL

-$92.75

Record

46%

225-259 (484)

Both legs:

Alessandro Bellifemine$349.7956.8¢-$106.46

Evgenii Tiurnev$91.1352.6¢+$13.71

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$295.52

Value

$88.43

PnL

-$44.66

Record

—

2-3 (5)

Research grade

NeutralEvgenii Tiurnev at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Evgenii Tiurnev

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Alessandro Bellifemine 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Evgenii Tiurnev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.