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8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 96¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$11.0K
$2.1K
76.2¢ → 95.5¢
+25% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 88.8¢ | $3.4K | $3.7K | +$248.6 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 gopfan2 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $2.3K | $3.3K | +$1.1K | 51% 901-875 (1776) |
 mountaindewd | Noavg 70.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.7K | +$704.54 | 54% 344-290 (634) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 95¢ | $475 | $477.5 | +$0 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 Donny.T | Noavg 86.3¢ | $285.05 | $315.44 | +$30.39 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
FB fbet | No | $255.74 | $255.74 | +$3.86 | 57% 21-16 (37) |
 DumplingBMF | Noavg 51¢ | $102 | $191 | +$89 | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $22.97 | $35.97 | +$12.99 | 51% 2097-1976 (4073) |
 ImbaferCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.6¢ | $50 | $5.05 | -$44.95 | 56% 238-189 (427) |
archaicInvested
$3,404.42
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$248.6
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
gopfan2Invested
$2,266.21
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
51%
901-875 (1776)
mountaindewdInvested
$2,011.37
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$704.54
Record
54%
344-290 (634)
Invested
$475
Value
$477.5
PnL
+$0
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
Donny.TInvested
$285.05
Value
$315.44
PnL
+$30.39
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
Invested
$255.74
Value
$255.74
PnL
+$3.86
Record
57%
21-16 (37)
DumplingBMFInvested
$102
Value
$191
PnL
+$89
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
Invested
$22.97
Value
$35.97
PnL
+$12.99
Record
51%
2097-1976 (4073)
ImbaferCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$44.95
Record
56%
238-189 (427)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.