Consensus PnL $174K · win rate 56% (288–230, n=518) · PM monthly #477 · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$174.0K
Record
288W / 230L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 518 settled
Batting Avg
49.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1396
Source
PM monthly #477 + pinned
Trades
10,908
Markets
759
Volume
$2.3M
Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 36 on the consensus side (78%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $19K · now 65¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $8.9K · now 72¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.3K · now 71¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $5.3K · now 78¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (70% of 37)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.9K · now 74¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $4.5K · now 63¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No $4.0K · now 81¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Yes $3.8K · now 71¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (73% of 23)
Specialties
520 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 57¢- Soccer
+32 pts
side won 84% of 113 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +31%
- Elections
+15 pts
side won 67% of 180 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +11%
- Weather
+31 pts
side won 92% of 12 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 69% of 58 at an average 71¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 21% of 92)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 65% of 98)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 75% of 145)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 95% of 185)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.