Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (70%) · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid at 66¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 10

Athletic Club35¢Rayo Vallecano de Madrid65¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Consensus Traders

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$63.55

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 65.5¢

-25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRayo Vallecano de Madrid at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Athletic Club35%

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,934

Combined PnL-$622.39

Athletic Club3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,324

Combined PnL+$685.95

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — 70%Athletic Club — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Rayo Vallecano de Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAthletic Club 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrRayo Vallecano de Madrid 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRayo Vallecano de Madrid 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 87¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$547.42	53% 60992-53371 (114363)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Athletic Clubavg 13.1¢	$362.78	$918.26	+$555.48	50% 28320-28210 (56530)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Athletic Clubavg 13.8¢	$110.13	$226.04	+$115.91	58% 51408-37352 (88760)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 86¢	$293.63	$225.18	-$68.44	56% 8290-6481 (14771)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 86.9¢	$399.47	$190.53	+$10.75	51% 25630-24353 (49983)
└ Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leg	Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 86.9¢	$147.67	$111.37	-$36.3
└ Athletic Club leg	Athletic Clubavg 14¢	$32.1	$79.16	+$47.05
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Athletic Clubavg 13.1¢	$9.44	$24	+$14.56	48% 60760-65418 (126178)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 84¢	$15	$9.83	-$2.78	49% 4465-4662 (9127)
GH ghorrock<$100	Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 84¢	$9.29	$7.25	-$2.05	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
YO youcanbuythisbot<$100	Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 87¢	$8.07	$5.29	-$1.74	49% 11107-11457 (22564)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 54¢	$3.07	$3.73	+$0.65	47% 11665-13338 (25003)
LR lryyy<$100	Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.28	-$0.63	47% 9360-10493 (19853)

RN1

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Invested

$2,215.15

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$547.42

Record

53%

60992-53371 (114363)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Athletic Club

Invested

$362.78

Value

$918.26

PnL

+$555.48

Record

50%

28320-28210 (56530)

UpTheBluesCTR

Athletic Club

Invested

$110.13

Value

$226.04

PnL

+$115.91

Record

58%

51408-37352 (88760)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Invested

$293.63

Value

$225.18

PnL

-$68.44

Record

56%

8290-6481 (14771)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Invested

$399.47

Value

$190.53

PnL

+$10.75

Record

51%

25630-24353 (49983)

Both legs:

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid$147.6786.9¢-$36.3

Athletic Club$32.114¢+$47.05

38791873984189CTR<$100

Athletic Club

Invested

$9.44

Value

$24

PnL

+$14.56

Record

48%

60760-65418 (126178)

Pan9X<$100

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Invested

$15

Value

$9.83

PnL

-$2.78

Record

49%

4465-4662 (9127)

ghorrock<$100

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Invested

$9.29

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$2.05

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

youcanbuythisbot<$100

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Invested

$8.07

Value

$5.29

PnL

-$1.74

Record

49%

11107-11457 (22564)

topdogbigboi<$100

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.65

Record

47%

11665-13338 (25003)

lryyy<$100

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.63

Record

47%

9360-10493 (19853)

Research grade

NeutralRayo Vallecano de Madrid at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Rayo Vallecano de Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAthletic Club 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrRayo Vallecano de Madrid 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRayo Vallecano de Madrid 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rayo Vallecano de Madrid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.