Spread: Real Racing Club (-1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid CF (33%) · Real Madrid CF at 100¢ · $77K held · ended Nov 1

Real Racing Club<1¢Real Madrid CF>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Real Madrid CF

Consensus Traders

Real Madrid CF 33%

Total Value

$77.0K

Combined PnL

-$74.76

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralReal Madrid CF at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid CF

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Racing Club0%

Real Madrid CF100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Madrid CF3 traders

Total Value$75.8K

Total Shares77,763

Combined PnL+$19.65

Real Racing Club6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares65,369

Combined PnL-$94.41

Real Madrid CF — 33%Real Racing Club — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Real Madrid CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleReal Racing Club 80% · 5

Diverging

sniperReal Racing Club 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrReal Racing Club 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedReal Racing Club 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Real Racing Club 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Real Madrid CFavg 98¢	$72.3K	$71.9K	+$21.78	53% 2098-1864 (3962)
BU BunCaCham	Real Madrid CFavg 98.2¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$2.44	97% 2582-68 (2650)
NooseracCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 1.9¢	$979.98	$975	-$4.98	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
RN1	Real Madrid CFavg 99.7¢	$209.1	$209.42	+$0.31	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
CA CannaeCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 2¢	$150.04	$146.87	-$3.17	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LM LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 1.7¢	$27.47	$32.32	+$4.85	— 3-6 (9)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 1.9¢	$103	$13.92	-$91.86	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 2.1¢	$9.32	$8.88	-$0.44	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 1.8¢	$7.17	$8.36	+$1.19	61% 13793-8671 (22464)

0F62

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$72,316.45

Value

$71.9K

PnL

+$21.78

Record

53%

2098-1864 (3962)

BunCaCham

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$3,707.68

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$2.44

Record

97%

2582-68 (2650)

NooseracCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$979.98

Value

$975

PnL

-$4.98

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

RN1

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$209.1

Value

$209.42

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

CannaeCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$150.04

Value

$146.87

PnL

-$3.17

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$27.47

Value

$32.32

PnL

+$4.85

Record

—

3-6 (9)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$103

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$91.86

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$9.32

Value

$8.88

PnL

-$0.44

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$7.17

Value

$8.36

PnL

+$1.19

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

Research grade

NeutralReal Madrid CF at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid CF

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Real Madrid CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleReal Racing Club 80% · 5

Diverging

sniperReal Racing Club 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrReal Racing Club 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedReal Racing Club 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Real Racing Club 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Madrid CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.