Exact Score: Riga FC 0 - 0 FC RFS?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
1 arb excluded
$5.0K
$-3.1K
96.5¢ → 97.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | -$103.03 | 48% 17808-19532 (37340) |
WH whosay | Yesavg 86.4¢ | $429.8 | $474.96 | +$45.16 | 57% 1310-972 (2282) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 83.2¢ | $4.1K | $293.87 | $-3.7K | 52% 49472-46424 (95896) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83.2¢ | $4.1K | $219.78 | $-3.8K | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11¢ | $8.53 | $74.09 | +$65.48 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 91¢ | $2.6K | $129.18 | $-2.5K | 46% 30982-36404 (67386) |
 Rex416 | Yesavg 85¢ | $106.47 | $119.62 | +$13.15 | 56% 2864-2284 (5148) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 18¢ | $146.26 | $36.51 | -$103.94 | 50% 24122-24229 (48351) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 85.7¢ | $342.6 | $18 | -$324.6 | 58% 53770-38280 (92050) |
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.2¢ | $14.45 | $10.42 | -$3.38 | 39% 1519-2417 (3936) |
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 85.3¢ | $111.47 | $5.88 | -$105.46 | 51% 28817-28169 (56986) |
dips.Invested
$3,974.62
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$103.03
Record
48%
17808-19532 (37340)
Invested
$429.8
Value
$474.96
PnL
+$45.16
Record
57%
1310-972 (2282)
Invested
$4,073.54
Value
$293.87
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
52%
49472-46424 (95896)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,613.63
Value
$129.18
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
46%
30982-36404 (67386)
Rex416Invested
$106.47
Value
$119.62
PnL
+$13.15
Record
56%
2864-2284 (5148)
Invested
$146.26
Value
$36.51
PnL
-$103.94
Record
50%
24122-24229 (48351)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$342.6
Value
$18
PnL
-$324.6
Record
58%
53770-38280 (92050)
Invested
$14.45
Value
$10.42
PnL
-$3.38
Record
39%
1519-2417 (3936)
Invested
$111.47
Value
$5.88
PnL
-$105.46
Record
51%
28817-28169 (56986)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.