Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$4.6K
$121.5
60.6¢ → 87¢
+44% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE denizz | Noavg 59.8¢ | $3.2K | $3.7K | +$449.56 | 68% 597-284 (881) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 76.1¢ | $343.36 | $374.57 | +$51.51 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
IM immanuelcanCTR | Yes | $132.12 | $132.12 | -$275.92 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $176.38 | $112.58 | -$63.8 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
 Rex416CTR | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $216.1 | $102.95 | -$113.15 | 57% 2537-1923 (4460) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $17.12 | $86.12 | +$69 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 Porx<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $29.3 | $30.78 | +$1.48 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
NO nonkenny90<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $27.65 | $29.05 | +$2.8 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 archaic<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $6.64 | $6.65 | +$0.01 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
Invested
$3,239.2
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$449.56
Record
68%
597-284 (881)
Invested
$343.36
Value
$374.57
PnL
+$51.51
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
Invested
$132.12
Value
$132.12
PnL
-$275.92
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
aenews2CTRInvested
$176.38
Value
$112.58
PnL
-$63.8
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
Rex416CTRInvested
$216.1
Value
$102.95
PnL
-$113.15
Record
57%
2537-1923 (4460)
2B9S<$100Invested
$17.12
Value
$86.12
PnL
+$69
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Porx<$100Invested
$29.3
Value
$30.78
PnL
+$1.48
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
Invested
$27.65
Value
$29.05
PnL
+$2.8
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
archaic<$100Invested
$6.64
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.01
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.