Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (75%) · Celtics at 65¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 11

76ers35¢Celtics65¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$96.09

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 65¢

+13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers35%

Celtics65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics9 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares16,950

Combined PnL+$145.63

76ers3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,682

Combined PnL-$49.54

Celtics — 75%76ers — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Celticsavg 57.8¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$76.33	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
HI hi774c	Celticsavg 57¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$53.39	8% 37-422 (459)
nigiri99CTR	76ersavg 42.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$50.2	52% 128-120 (248)
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 58¢	$812.58	$812.58	+$0	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
VeryLucky888	Celticsavg 57.6¢	$640.83	$638.68	+$5.07	51% 299-291 (590)
NM NM-P	Celticsavg 57.5¢	$620.73	$631.27	+$10.54	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 58¢	$580	$580	+$0	56% 488-383 (871)
GC GC-P	Celticsavg 58¢	$442.21	$442.21	-$0	16% 67-351 (418)
RN1ARB<$100	Celticsavg 61¢	$275.7	$211.03	-$7.46	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 61¢	$142.56	$144.91	+$2.36
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 42¢	$73.08	$66.12	-$9.82
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 57.6¢	$218.83	$210.85	+$8.22	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 57.6¢	$160.08	$168.19	+$8.76
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 40¢	$43.2	$42.66	-$0.54
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Celticsavg 58¢	$71.52	$71.52	-$0	48% 190-206 (396)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 58¢	$40.15	$40.15	+$0
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 42¢	$31.37	$31.37	-$0
65 6512395314597884<$100	Celticsavg 68¢	$60.71	$60.71	+$0	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 40¢	$28.5	$24.52	+$0.66	49% 443-470 (913)
0xheavy888<$100	Celticsavg 56.8¢	$14.23	$14.53	+$0.3	55% 119-96 (215)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	76ersavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.05	+$0	26% 180-518 (698)

HomeRunHazard

Celtics

Invested

$3,638.58

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$76.33

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

hi774c

Celtics

Invested

$3,043.04

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$53.39

Record

37-422 (459)

nigiri99CTR

76ers

Invested

$1,133.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$50.2

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$812.58

Value

$812.58

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

VeryLucky888

Celtics

Invested

$640.83

Value

$638.68

PnL

+$5.07

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

NM-P

Celtics

Invested

$620.73

Value

$631.27

PnL

+$10.54

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$580

Value

$580

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

GC-P

Celtics

Invested

$442.21

Value

$442.21

PnL

-$0

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

RN1ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$275.7

Value

$211.03

PnL

-$7.46

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Both legs:

Celtics$142.5661¢+$2.36

76ers$73.0842¢-$9.82

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$218.83

Value

$210.85

PnL

+$8.22

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Celtics$160.0857.6¢+$8.76

76ers$43.240¢-$0.54

SnakeBallARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$71.52

Value

$71.52

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Both legs:

Celtics$40.1558¢+$0

76ers$31.3742¢-$0

6512395314597884<$100

Celtics

Invested

$60.71

Value

$60.71

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$28.5

Value

$24.52

PnL

+$0.66

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

0xheavy888<$100

Celtics

Invested

$14.23

Value

$14.53

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.