Spread: Celtics (-7.5)

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (15%) · Raptors at 54¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 12

Celtics47¢Raptors53¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 15%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.9K

Combined PnL

-$29.17

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 53.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 13 top traders (15%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics47%

Raptors54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares26,534

Combined PnL+$256.56

Celtics11 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares20,193

Combined PnL-$285.73

Raptors — 15%Celtics — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
drainedandpoor	Raptorsavg 50.8¢	$8.5K	$8.7K	+$207.22	47% 412-462 (874)
TA takeormake	Raptorsavg 53¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$49.34	58% 3212-2312 (5524)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Celticsavg 48.4¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$194.5	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
VE VenusianCTR	Celticsavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$25.89	30% 376-862 (1238)
HI hi774cCTR	Celticsavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$25.73	14% 75-471 (546)
73 739633786CTR	Celticsavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	6% 11-189 (200)
VeryLucky888CTR	Celticsavg 49¢	$638.91	$606.82	-$32.09	51% 442-417 (859)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 48.3¢	$485.04	$480.99	-$4.05	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 48.3¢	$277.04	$266.99	-$10.05
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 52¢	$208	$214	+$6
FL FlaznorpCTR	Celticsavg 47¢	$198.26	$196.15	-$2.11	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
NM NM-PCTR	Celticsavg 47¢	$164.5	$162.75	-$1.75	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
GC GC-PCTR	Celticsavg 47¢	$164.5	$162.75	-$1.75	20% 97-381 (478)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Celticsavg 48.2¢	$47.88	$41.22	-$0.3	48% 658-706 (1364)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Celticsavg 50¢	$40.18	$38.57	-$1.61	45% 262-316 (578)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Celticsavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	32% 281-611 (892)

drainedandpoor

Raptors

Invested

$8,459.26

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$207.22

Record

47%

412-462 (874)

takeormake

Raptors

Invested

$5,230.04

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$49.34

Record

58%

3212-2312 (5524)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Celtics

Invested

$4,869.37

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$194.5

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

VenusianCTR

Celtics

Invested

$1,268.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$25.89

Record

30%

376-862 (1238)

hi774cCTR

Celtics

Invested

$1,260.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$25.73

Record

14%

75-471 (546)

739633786CTR

Celtics

Invested

$1,157.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

11-189 (200)

VeryLucky888CTR

Celtics

Invested

$638.91

Value

$606.82

PnL

-$32.09

Record

51%

442-417 (859)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$485.04

Value

$480.99

PnL

-$4.05

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

Both legs:

Celtics$277.0448.3¢-$10.05

Raptors$20852¢+$6

FlaznorpCTR

Celtics

Invested

$198.26

Value

$196.15

PnL

-$2.11

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

NM-PCTR

Celtics

Invested

$164.5

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

GC-PCTR

Celtics

Invested

$164.5

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

20%

97-381 (478)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$47.88

Value

$41.22

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

658-706 (1364)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$40.18

Value

$38.57

PnL

-$1.61

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

281-611 (892)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 13 top traders (15%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.