Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (67%) · Cavaliers at 53¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10

Cavaliers53¢Hornets47¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$4.4

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers53%

Hornets48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares10,044

Combined PnL-$45.84

Cavaliers8 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,200

Combined PnL+$50.24

Hornets — 33%Cavaliers — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehcCTR	Hornetsavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$49.23	61% 4534-2843 (7377)
HO HomeRunHazard	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$28.07	54% 20343-17178 (37521)
HI hi774c	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.17	46% 5712-6614 (12326)
VeryLucky888	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$260	$262.5	+$2.5	58% 53914-38392 (92306)
GC GC-P	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$182	$183.75	+$1.75	57% 22682-16912 (39594)
NM NM-P	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$182	$183.75	+$1.75	57% 22830-16911 (39741)
38 38791873984189	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$117.52	$118.65	+$1.13	48% 72298-78071 (150369)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$71.04	$73.86	+$2.83	50% 49353-48879 (98232)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$40.4	$40.79	+$0.39
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 44¢	$30.64	$33.07	+$2.44
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 45¢	$40.99	$43.27	+$2.28	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 44¢	$39.96	$40.38	+$0.43	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$13	$13.13	+$0.13	53% 28460-25726 (54186)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 44¢	$19.66	$9.34	+$0.69	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cavaliersavg 53¢	$7.6	$5	-$0.25	53% 14841-13046 (27887)

nehcnehcCTR

Hornets

Invested

$4,726.99

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$49.23

Record

61%

4534-2843 (7377)

HomeRunHazard

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,835.18

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$28.07

Record

54%

20343-17178 (37521)

hi774c

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,577.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.17

Record

46%

5712-6614 (12326)

VeryLucky888

Cavaliers

Invested

$260

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

53914-38392 (92306)

GC-P

Cavaliers

Invested

$182

Value

$183.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22682-16912 (39594)

NM-P

Cavaliers

Invested

$182

Value

$183.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22830-16911 (39741)

38791873984189

Cavaliers

Invested

$117.52

Value

$118.65

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

72298-78071 (150369)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$71.04

Value

$73.86

PnL

+$2.83

Record

50%

49353-48879 (98232)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$40.452¢+$0.39

Hornets$30.6444¢+$2.44

LimousinCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$40.99

Value

$43.27

PnL

+$2.28

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$39.96

Value

$40.38

PnL

+$0.43

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

Pan9X<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$13

Value

$13.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

28460-25726 (54186)

sentrioCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$19.66

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$0.69

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.