Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (33%) · Hornets at 53¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 10

Cavaliers48¢Hornets52¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

-$121.01

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers48%

Hornets53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets4 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares15,671

Combined PnL-$124.7

Cavaliers8 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares10,362

Combined PnL+$3.69

Hornets — 33%Cavaliers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrCavaliers 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hornetsavg 53.4¢	$6.6K	$6.5K	-$108.35	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
HG hgawxCTR	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$0	42% 58-81 (139)
nigiri99	Hornetsavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$12.09	45% 14905-18242 (33147)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$810.26	$563.92	+$5.66	57% 22656-16901 (39557)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$285.26	$288.29	+$3.03
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 52¢	$273	$275.63	+$2.63
73 739633786CTR	Cavaliersavg 47.8¢	$471.14	$468.42	-$2.72	44% 452-565 (1017)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Hornetsavg 52¢	$346.5	$350	+$3.5	57% 22806-16903 (39709)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 52¢	$182	$183.75	+$1.75
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$164.5	$166.25	+$1.75
OM omnibus-076daa	Hornetsavg 53¢	$272.59	$270.02	-$2.57	50% 24127-24236 (48363)
SE sentrio	Hornetsavg 53¢	$497.16	$257.01	-$1.69	51% 28824-28178 (57002)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cavaliersavg 46.9¢	$382.2	$181.55	+$2.2	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
RN1CTR	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$117.5	$118.75	+$1.25	53% 72043-63546 (135589)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 46.5¢	$90.44	$92.29	+$1.85	50% 49271-48803 (98074)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$14.57	$14.73	+$0.16	47% 3608-4014 (7622)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$11.75	$11.88	+$0.13	53% 28380-25663 (54043)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 44¢	$10.41	$11.23	+$0.83	46% 2784-3230 (6014)

HomeRunHazard

Hornets

Invested

$6,576.43

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$108.35

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

hgawxCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$3,980.88

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

58-81 (139)

nigiri99

Hornets

Invested

$1,282.07

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$12.09

Record

45%

14905-18242 (33147)

GC-PARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$810.26

Value

$563.92

PnL

+$5.66

Record

57%

22656-16901 (39557)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$285.2647¢+$3.03

Hornets$27352¢+$2.63

739633786CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$471.14

Value

$468.42

PnL

-$2.72

Record

44%

452-565 (1017)

NM-PARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$346.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$3.5

Record

57%

22806-16903 (39709)

Both legs:

Hornets$18252¢+$1.75

Cavaliers$164.547¢+$1.75

omnibus-076daa

Hornets

Invested

$272.59

Value

$270.02

PnL

-$2.57

Record

50%

24127-24236 (48363)

sentrio

Hornets

Invested

$497.16

Value

$257.01

PnL

-$1.69

Record

51%

28824-28178 (57002)

FlaznorpCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$382.2

Value

$181.55

PnL

+$2.2

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

RN1CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$117.5

Value

$118.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

72043-63546 (135589)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$90.44

Value

$92.29

PnL

+$1.85

Record

50%

49271-48803 (98074)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$14.57

Value

$14.73

PnL

+$0.16

Record

47%

3608-4014 (7622)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$11.75

Value

$11.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

28380-25663 (54043)

LimousinCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$10.41

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0.83

Record

46%

2784-3230 (6014)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrCavaliers 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.