Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Knicks (63%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (91%) · Cavaliers at 38¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Cavaliers38¢Knicks62¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 91%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$103.67

Smart Money Entry

38.1¢ → 37.5¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers38%

Knicks63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers10 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares10,797

Combined PnL-$111.65

Knicks1 trader

Total Value$233.43

Total Shares371

Combined PnL+$7.97

Cavaliers — 91%Knicks — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 38¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$61.36	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 37¢	$414.97	$414.97	-$0	51% 442-417 (859)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Cavaliersavg 38.2¢	$324.59	$314.24	-$10.35	45% 262-316 (578)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Cavaliersavg 39.7¢	$329.11	$306.96	-$22.15	31% 375-842 (1217)
SE sentrioCTR	Cavaliersavg 38¢	$295.59	$293.12	-$2.48	37% 340-569 (909)
DA darkumbreon88	Knicksavg 60.8¢	$225.46	$233.43	+$7.97	61% 922-593 (1515)
PU purplegattoCTR	Cavaliersavg 37.5¢	$173.63	$171.5	-$2.13	69% 2585-1181 (3766)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$388.44	$150.95	+$2.24	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$92.04	$87.32	-$4.72
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 60¢	$60.6	$63.63	+$6.96
LI LightParadoxCTR	Cavaliersavg 40¢	$107.01	$98.98	-$8.03	30% 371-861 (1232)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$62.89	$59.66	-$3.23	15% 12-69 (81)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Knicksavg 60.5¢	$58.94	$59.23	+$0.29	54% 562-474 (1036)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 60.5¢	$35.84	$37.31	+$1.48
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$23.1	$21.92	-$1.18
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 37.8¢	$41.24	$40.33	-$0.91	22% 33-116 (149)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 38.4¢	$28.4	$27.38	-$1.02	48% 658-706 (1364)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,356.94

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$61.36

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$414.97

Value

$414.97

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

442-417 (859)

SnakeBallCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$324.59

Value

$314.24

PnL

-$10.35

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

MadridTimeCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$329.11

Value

$306.96

PnL

-$22.15

Record

31%

375-842 (1217)

sentrioCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$295.59

Value

$293.12

PnL

-$2.48

Record

37%

340-569 (909)

darkumbreon88

Knicks

Invested

$225.46

Value

$233.43

PnL

+$7.97

Record

61%

922-593 (1515)

purplegattoCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$173.63

Value

$171.5

PnL

-$2.13

Record

69%

2585-1181 (3766)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$388.44

Value

$150.95

PnL

+$2.24

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$92.0439¢-$4.72

Knicks$60.660¢+$6.96

LightParadoxCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$107.01

Value

$98.98

PnL

-$8.03

Record

30%

371-861 (1232)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$62.89

Value

$59.66

PnL

-$3.23

Record

15%

12-69 (81)

ghorrockARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$58.94

Value

$59.23

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

Both legs:

Knicks$35.8460.5¢+$1.48

Cavaliers$23.139¢-$1.18

OddstormCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$41.24

Value

$40.33

PnL

-$0.91

Record

22%

33-116 (149)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$28.4

Value

$27.38

PnL

-$1.02

Record

48%

658-706 (1364)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.