Spread: Knicks (-7.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (50%) · Cavaliers at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Knicks26¢Cavaliers74¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 50%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$56.09

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 74.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks26%

Cavaliers75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,318

Combined PnL+$52.5

Knicks5 traders

Total Value$92.36

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$3.59

Cavaliers — 50%Knicks — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Cavaliersavg 58¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$46.85	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
RN1	Cavaliersavg 63¢	$99.79	$101.72	+$1.93	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Knicksavg 38¢	$33.44	$36.08	+$2.64	30% 399-910 (1309)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cavaliersavg 62.5¢	$51.28	$26.07	-$1.63	49% 684-724 (1408)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Cavaliersavg 59¢	$19.47	$24.75	+$5.28	51% 3720-3550 (7270)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Knicksavg 40¢	$22.51	$22.79	+$0.28	55% 718-583 (1301)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Knicksavg 41¢	$15.94	$15.74	-$0.19	31% 407-907 (1314)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Knicksavg 39¢	$13.69	$14.4	+$0.7	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Knicksavg 39¢	$3.18	$3.35	+$0.16	39% 382-610 (992)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cavaliersavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.97	+$0.07	33% 317-631 (948)

HomeRunHazard

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,811.34

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$46.85

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

RN1

Cavaliers

Invested

$99.79

Value

$101.72

PnL

+$1.93

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

LimousinCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$33.44

Value

$36.08

PnL

+$2.64

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

Pan9X<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$51.28

Value

$26.07

PnL

-$1.63

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$19.47

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$5.28

Record

51%

3720-3550 (7270)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$22.51

Value

$22.79

PnL

+$0.28

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

VenusianCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$15.94

Value

$15.74

PnL

-$0.19

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$13.69

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0.7

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

sentrioCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.16

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.07

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.