Spread: Thunder (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (38%) · Thunder at 57¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 5

Thunder57¢Cavaliers43¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$374.92

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 57.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder57%

Cavaliers43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,255

Combined PnL-$0.06

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares9,204

Combined PnL-$374.86

Thunder — 38%Cavaliers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCavaliers 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Thunderavg 56¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$0	48% 303-327 (630)
JE jeremyclarCTR	Cavaliersavg 45.3¢	$3.8K	$3.5K	-$360.06	44% 47-61 (108)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$190.92	$182.04	-$8.88	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Thunderavg 53.3¢	$133.68	$138.69	+$5.01	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 53.3¢	$89.56	$96.55	+$7
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 44.5¢	$44.12	$42.13	-$1.99
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$73.1	$69.7	-$3.4	50% 1337-1356 (2693)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$42.21	$40.25	-$1.96	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$11.95	$11.4	-$0.56	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Thunderavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.8	-$0.08	52% 8584-7828 (16412)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Thunderavg 57¢	$1.42	$1.43	+$0.01	54% 755-638 (1393)

Multicoloured-Serf

Thunder

Invested

$5,178.7

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

jeremyclarCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$3,830.3

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$360.06

Record

44%

47-61 (108)

FlaznorpCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$190.92

Value

$182.04

PnL

-$8.88

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$133.68

Value

$138.69

PnL

+$5.01

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

Both legs:

Thunder$89.5653.3¢+$7

Cavaliers$44.1244.5¢-$1.99

forecastication4CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$73.1

Value

$69.7

PnL

-$3.4

Record

50%

1337-1356 (2693)

sentrioCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$42.21

Value

$40.25

PnL

-$1.96

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$11.95

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$0.56

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

ameisgoat11<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

pltrkr111<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

755-638 (1393)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCavaliers 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.