Warriors vs. Rockets

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (63%) · Rockets at 68¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Warriors33¢Rockets67¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 63%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$88.8

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 67.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors33%

Rockets68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,263

Combined PnL+$38.67

Warriors3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,724

Combined PnL-$127.47

Rockets — 63%Warriors — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Warriorsavg 37.7¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$108.45	69% 2581-1180 (3761)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 37.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$187
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 60.2¢	$695.69	$774.24	+$78.55
FL Flaznorp	Rocketsavg 66¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$21.31	51% 1779-1735 (3514)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Warriorsavg 37¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$119.8	50% 3271-3222 (6493)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 62¢	$1.2K	$833.13	+$7.96	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 62¢	$512.01	$553.74	+$54.88
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 38.3¢	$324.51	$279.38	-$46.92
HO HomeRunHazard	Rocketsavg 66¢	$778.87	$790.67	+$11.8	57% 3183-2408 (5591)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Rocketsavg 62.7¢	$591.56	$601.12	+$9.56	23% 33-111 (144)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 62.7¢	$400.85	$428.42	+$27.58
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 36.4¢	$190.71	$172.7	-$18.01
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Rocketsavg 67¢	$552.48	$556.61	+$4.12	54% 519-438 (957)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Rocketsavg 66¢	$208.01	$208.63	+$0.62	46% 255-304 (559)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 66¢	$151.21	$153.5	+$2.29
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 34¢	$56.79	$55.12	-$1.67
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Warriorsavg 34.3¢	$182.32	$175.35	-$6.97	61% 919-590 (1509)
SE sentrio<$100	Rocketsavg 66¢	$75.02	$76.15	+$1.14	37% 325-557 (882)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Rocketsavg 62.2¢	$110.3	$69.9	-$3.48	49% 629-666 (1295)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 62.2¢	$37.31	$40.2	+$2.11
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 39¢	$35.14	$29.7	-$5.59
GH ghorrock<$100	Rocketsavg 64¢	$17.57	$17.87	+$0.3	54% 512-439 (951)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 35.4¢	$10.23	$9.52	-$0.7	68% 1630-781 (2411)

purplegattoARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$2,203.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$108.45

Record

69%

2581-1180 (3761)

Both legs:

Warriors$1,507.9337.7¢-$187

Rockets$695.6960.2¢+$78.55

Flaznorp

Rockets

Invested

$1,406.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$21.31

Record

51%

1779-1735 (3514)

6512395314597884CTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,304.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$119.8

Record

50%

3271-3222 (6493)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1,242.97

Value

$833.13

PnL

+$7.96

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Both legs:

Rockets$512.0162¢+$54.88

Warriors$324.5138.3¢-$46.92

HomeRunHazard

Rockets

Invested

$778.87

Value

$790.67

PnL

+$11.8

Record

57%

3183-2408 (5591)

OddstormARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$591.56

Value

$601.12

PnL

+$9.56

Record

23%

33-111 (144)

Both legs:

Rockets$400.8562.7¢+$27.58

Warriors$190.7136.4¢-$18.01

monkeymashingkeyboard

Rockets

Invested

$552.48

Value

$556.61

PnL

+$4.12

Record

54%

519-438 (957)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$208.01

Value

$208.63

PnL

+$0.62

Record

46%

255-304 (559)

Both legs:

Rockets$151.2166¢+$2.29

Warriors$56.7934¢-$1.67

darkumbreon88CTR

Warriors

Invested

$182.32

Value

$175.35

PnL

-$6.97

Record

61%

919-590 (1509)

sentrio<$100

Rockets

Invested

$75.02

Value

$76.15

PnL

+$1.14

Record

37%

325-557 (882)

Pan9XARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$110.3

Value

$69.9

PnL

-$3.48

Record

49%

629-666 (1295)

Both legs:

Rockets$37.3162.2¢+$2.11

Warriors$35.1439¢-$5.59

ghorrock<$100

Rockets

Invested

$17.57

Value

$17.87

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

512-439 (951)

RLWGCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$10.23

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.7

Record

68%

1630-781 (2411)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.