Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (42%) · Hawks at 59¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10

Lakers41¢Hawks59¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$18.72

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 59¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers41%

Hawks59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,921

Combined PnL+$42.22

Lakers7 traders

Total Value$697.53

Total Shares1,672

Combined PnL-$23.49

Hawks — 42%Lakers — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Lakers) and the top 1000 (12 on Hawks) disagree here.

whaleHawks 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrHawks 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawksavg 51.8¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$4.3	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Hawksavg 57.5¢	$344.75	$350	+$5.25	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 57.5¢	$201.25	$206.5	+$5.25
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 41¢	$143.5	$143.5	+$0
nigiri99	Hawksavg 54¢	$222.72	$241.02	+$18.3	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lakersavg 40.9¢	$227.59	$231.31	+$3.72	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
RN1CTR	Lakersavg 45¢	$504.89	$209.53	-$17.57	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
FL Flaznorp	Hawksavg 51¢	$165.89	$183.11	+$17.22	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
GC GC-PCTR	Lakersavg 41¢	$143.5	$143.5	+$0	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Lakersavg 44¢	$218.39	$100.96	+$0.02	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 44¢	$69.34	$65.41	-$3.93
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 52¢	$31.6	$35.55	+$3.95
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Lakersavg 47¢	$62.04	$54.78	-$7.26	47% 3609-4021 (7630)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lakersavg 43.3¢	$49.7	$45.59	-$1.7	53% 28430-25699 (54129)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Hawksavg 54¢	$39	$22.82	+$1.76	54% 5399-4609 (10008)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$11.4	$10.75	-$0.65	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
0xheavy888<$100	Hawksavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.85	+$0.65	56% 9043-7128 (16171)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Lakersavg 47¢	$2.1	$2.08	-$0.03	53% 14841-13046 (27887)

HomeRunHazard

Hawks

Invested

$2,421.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$4.3

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

NM-PARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$344.75

Value

$350

PnL

+$5.25

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

Both legs:

Hawks$201.2557.5¢+$5.25

Lakers$143.541¢+$0

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$222.72

Value

$241.02

PnL

+$18.3

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

38791873984189CTR

Lakers

Invested

$227.59

Value

$231.31

PnL

+$3.72

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

RN1CTR

Lakers

Invested

$504.89

Value

$209.53

PnL

-$17.57

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

Flaznorp

Hawks

Invested

$165.89

Value

$183.11

PnL

+$17.22

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

GC-PCTR

Lakers

Invested

$143.5

Value

$143.5

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

sentrioARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$218.39

Value

$100.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

Both legs:

Lakers$69.3444¢-$3.93

Hawks$31.652¢+$3.95

dv-pmCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$62.04

Value

$54.78

PnL

-$7.26

Record

47%

3609-4021 (7630)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$49.7

Value

$45.59

PnL

-$1.7

Record

53%

28430-25699 (54129)

SunlineTicker<$100

Hawks

Invested

$39

Value

$22.82

PnL

+$1.76

Record

54%

5399-4609 (10008)

VenusianCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$11.4

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$0.65

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

0xheavy888<$100

Hawks

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.65

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Lakers) and the top 1000 (12 on Hawks) disagree here.

whaleHawks 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrHawks 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.