Spread: Lakers (-14.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (56%) · Bucks at 53¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 12

Lakers48¢Bucks52¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$255.68

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers48%

Bucks53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks5 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares23,944

Combined PnL+$252.15

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$253.11

Total Shares514

Combined PnL+$3.53

Bucks — 56%Lakers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bucksavg 51.7¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$101.77	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Lakersavg 48.5¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$60.99	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48.5¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$97.13
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$36.15
nehcnehc	Bucksavg 51¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$139.03	25% 21-63 (84)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Bucksavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.67	48% 536-588 (1124)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lakersavg 48¢	$184.71	$183.05	-$1.66	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$117.35	$113.42	-$3.93	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 49¢	$70.07	$70.79	+$0.72
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 56¢	$47.28	$42.64	-$4.64
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Lakersavg 44¢	$43.75	$48.72	+$4.97	30% 373-868 (1241)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$12.25	$12.38	+$0.13	48% 662-711 (1373)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Lakersavg 47¢	$8.87	$8.96	+$0.09	45% 263-317 (580)
SE sentrio<$100	Bucksavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.53	-$0.02	37% 341-573 (914)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bucksavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.5	-$0.3	32% 285-613 (898)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bucks

Invested

$6,372.69

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$101.77

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$5,969.49

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$60.99

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

Both legs:

Lakers$4,740.4948.5¢-$97.13

Bucks$1,22951¢+$36.15

nehcnehc

Bucks

Invested

$4,727

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$139.03

Record

25%

21-63 (84)

Multicoloured-Serf

Bucks

Invested

$1,166.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.67

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

FlaznorpCTR

Lakers

Invested

$184.71

Value

$183.05

PnL

-$1.66

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$117.35

Value

$113.42

PnL

-$3.93

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

Both legs:

Lakers$70.0749¢+$0.72

Bucks$47.2856¢-$4.64

LimousinCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$43.75

Value

$48.72

PnL

+$4.97

Record

30%

373-868 (1241)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

662-711 (1373)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$8.87

Value

$8.96

PnL

+$0.09

Record

45%

263-317 (580)

sentrio<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

341-573 (914)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.