Spread: Lakers (-6.5)

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (10%) · Lakers at 72¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 12

Lakers72¢Bucks28¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 10%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.9K

Combined PnL

-$105.21

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

1 of 10 top traders (10%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers72%

Bucks28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers1 trader

Total Value$23.7K

Total Shares33,364

Combined PnL-$918.8

Bucks9 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares29,611

Combined PnL+$813.58

Lakers — 10%Bucks — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Lakersavg 73.8¢	$24.6K	$23.7K	-$918.8	59% 17-12 (29)
FO forecastication4CTR	Bucksavg 25.4¢	$4.1K	$4.7K	+$579.48	18% 48-217 (265)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bucksavg 27.4¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$153.66	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 71¢	$889.43	$661.05	+$52.56	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 71¢	$398.65	$398.86	+$0.22
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 25.8¢	$233.16	$262.19	+$52.34
LU LuckyLooCTR	Bucksavg 25.1¢	$382.89	$441.73	+$58.84	38% 136-221 (357)
SE sentrioCTR	Bucksavg 28.2¢	$417.5	$429.85	+$12.36	37% 340-569 (909)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Bucksavg 28.7¢	$112.24	$113.48	+$1.24	30% 371-861 (1232)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bucksavg 28¢	$37.8	$39.2	+$1.4	31% 375-842 (1217)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Bucksavg 27¢	$29.7	$31.9	+$2.2	67% 1639-791 (2430)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Bucksavg 25¢	$27.25	$31.61	+$4.36	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bucksavg 28.7¢	$4.2	$4.25	+$0.05	30% 372-863 (1235)

bigbeliever

Lakers

Invested

$24,607.46

Value

$23.7K

PnL

-$918.8

Record

59%

17-12 (29)

forecastication4CTR

Bucks

Invested

$4,128.09

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$579.48

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

FlaznorpCTR

Bucks

Invested

$2,634

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$153.66

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$889.43

Value

$661.05

PnL

+$52.56

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

Both legs:

Lakers$398.6571¢+$0.22

Bucks$233.1625.8¢+$52.34

LuckyLooCTR

Bucks

Invested

$382.89

Value

$441.73

PnL

+$58.84

Record

38%

136-221 (357)

sentrioCTR

Bucks

Invested

$417.5

Value

$429.85

PnL

+$12.36

Record

37%

340-569 (909)

LightParadoxCTR

Bucks

Invested

$112.24

Value

$113.48

PnL

+$1.24

Record

30%

371-861 (1232)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$37.8

Value

$39.2

PnL

+$1.4

Record

31%

375-842 (1217)

RLWGCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$29.7

Value

$31.9

PnL

+$2.2

Record

67%

1639-791 (2430)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$27.25

Value

$31.61

PnL

+$4.36

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

372-863 (1235)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

1 of 10 top traders (10%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.