Spread: Lakers (-13.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (75%) · Kings at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 5

Lakers30¢Kings70¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 75%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$57.07

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 70.5¢

+23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers30%

Kings71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,958

Combined PnL+$85.26

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$118.63

Total Shares394

Combined PnL-$28.19

Kings — 75%Lakers — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Kingsavg 55.2¢	$788.04	$828.29	+$40.25	55% 6208-5087 (11295)
HE Herdonia	Kingsavg 54¢	$463.31	$497.63	+$34.32	51% 3590-3516 (7106)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Kingsavg 66¢	$220.86	$223.6	+$2.74	50% 4275-4242 (8517)
38 38791873984189	Kingsavg 63.5¢	$123.29	$131.46	+$8.16	48% 59829-63853 (123682)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lakersavg 36.5¢	$131.17	$106.03	-$25.14	51% 24552-23218 (47770)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Kingsavg 70.8¢	$82.83	$67.86	-$14.97	53% 11951-10480 (22431)
TA takeormake<$100	Kingsavg 62.4¢	$36.79	$40.12	+$3.32	53% 4720-4228 (8948)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kingsavg 60.3¢	$46.13	$28.44	+$11.42	50% 4211-4243 (8454)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Lakersavg 45¢	$13.5	$10.5	-$3	53% 22918-20103 (43021)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Kingsavg 56.5¢	$5.65	$5.8	+$0.15	52% 8645-7865 (16510)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Kingsavg 58.2¢	$5.18	$5.05	-$0.13	54% 18061-15195 (33256)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Lakersavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.1	-$0.05	50% 25602-25300 (50902)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Kings

Invested

$788.04

Value

$828.29

PnL

+$40.25

Record

55%

6208-5087 (11295)

Herdonia

Kings

Invested

$463.31

Value

$497.63

PnL

+$34.32

Record

51%

3590-3516 (7106)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Kings

Invested

$220.86

Value

$223.6

PnL

+$2.74

Record

50%

4275-4242 (8517)

38791873984189

Kings

Invested

$123.29

Value

$131.46

PnL

+$8.16

Record

48%

59829-63853 (123682)

FlaznorpCTR

Lakers

Invested

$131.17

Value

$106.03

PnL

-$25.14

Record

51%

24552-23218 (47770)

justaluckydude<$100

Kings

Invested

$82.83

Value

$67.86

PnL

-$14.97

Record

53%

11951-10480 (22431)

takeormake<$100

Kings

Invested

$36.79

Value

$40.12

PnL

+$3.32

Record

53%

4720-4228 (8948)

Pan9X<$100

Kings

Invested

$46.13

Value

$28.44

PnL

+$11.42

Record

50%

4211-4243 (8454)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$13.5

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

22918-20103 (43021)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kings

Invested

$5.65

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

8645-7865 (16510)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Kings

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

18061-15195 (33256)

sentrioCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

25602-25300 (50902)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.