Spread: Heat (-4.5)

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (17%) · Heat at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 5

Heat56¢Clippers44¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 17%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$75.17

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 56.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat56%

Clippers44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat2 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares7,493

Combined PnL-$45.36

Clippers10 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,849

Combined PnL-$29.81

Heat — 17%Clippers — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpHeat 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrClippers 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO Hongweiqian	Heatavg 58.2¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$97.61	49% 266-282 (548)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Heatavg 54.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$52.25	67% 3670-1848 (5518)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Clippersavg 43¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
NM NM-PCTR	Clippersavg 43.5¢	$435	$430	-$5	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
VeryLucky888CTR	Clippersavg 46.7¢	$308.57	$206.65	-$19.49	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Clippersavg 44¢	$173.36	$169.42	-$3.94	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Clippersavg 43¢	$14.45	$14.61	+$0.17	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Clippersavg 48.2¢	$10.24	$9.13	-$1.11	50% 20843-21072 (41915)
3C 0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100	Clippersavg 43¢	$7.66	$7.75	+$0.09	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Clippersavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.35	-$0.15	52% 8633-7856 (16489)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$2.41	$2.2	-$0.2	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$2.04	$1.87	-$0.17	51% 3584-3513 (7097)

Hongweiqian

Heat

Invested

$2,553.75

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$97.61

Record

49%

266-282 (548)

JAMJAMJAM4

Heat

Invested

$1,703.09

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$52.25

Record

67%

3670-1848 (5518)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,669.57

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

NM-PCTR

Clippers

Invested

$435

Value

$430

PnL

-$5

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

VeryLucky888CTR

Clippers

Invested

$308.57

Value

$206.65

PnL

-$19.49

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

FlaznorpCTR

Clippers

Invested

$173.36

Value

$169.42

PnL

-$3.94

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$14.45

Value

$14.61

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$10.24

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$1.11

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.66

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$0.09

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.41

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.04

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.17

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpHeat 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrClippers 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.