Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$234.4

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 88¢

+55% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,241

Combined PnL+$267.26

Over7 traders

Total Value$359.03

Total Shares1,316

Combined PnL-$32.86

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 55¢	$362.74	$615.56	+$252.82	48% 190-206 (396)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 58.5¢	$521.92	$538.13	+$17.15	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 40¢	$116	$101.5	-$14.5	28% 285-731 (1016)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 40¢	$113.3	$99.14	-$14.16	49% 95-99 (194)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 40¢	$102.4	$89.6	-$12.8	28% 279-730 (1009)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 35.3¢	$37.88	$30.11	-$3.44	54% 383-322 (705)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 60¢	$32.61	$29.9	-$2.72	34% 233-457 (690)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$15.3	$21.68	+$6.38	56% 488-383 (871)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$8.59	$14.61	+$6.01	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$2.74	$2.4	-$0.34	28% 279-704 (983)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$362.74

Value

$615.56

PnL

+$252.82

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$521.92

Value

$538.13

PnL

+$17.15

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$116

Value

$101.5

PnL

-$14.5

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$113.3

Value

$99.14

PnL

-$14.16

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$102.4

Value

$89.6

PnL

-$12.8

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.88

Value

$30.11

PnL

-$3.44

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$32.61

Value

$29.9

PnL

-$2.72

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.3

Value

$21.68

PnL

+$6.38

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.59

Value

$14.61

PnL

+$6.01

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.74

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.34

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.