Spread: Thunder (-5.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (58%) · Trail Blazers at 100¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder<1¢Trail Blazers>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.8K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 99.5¢

+53% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder1%

Trail Blazers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares27,963

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$900.88

Total Shares3,401

Combined PnL-$443.88

Trail Blazers — 58%Thunder — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Trail Blazersavg 60.5¢	$10.6K	$13.0K	+$2.4K	70% 1660-708 (2368)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 72.7¢	$3.5K	$4.4K	+$900.22	56% 563-451 (1014)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 78.5¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$192.86	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
FO forecastication4	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$297	13% 28-196 (224)
PU purplegattoCTR	Thunderavg 39¢	$909.87	$606.46	-$303.41	69% 2576-1173 (3749)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 69.6¢	$235.02	$336.22	+$101.2	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
38 38791873984189CTR	Thunderavg 38¢	$171.38	$117.26	-$54.12	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
TA takeormakeCTR	Thunderavg 38.2¢	$166.38	$113.36	-$53.02	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Trail Blazersavg 91¢	$115.72	$91.71	-$15.73	62% 2398-1492 (3890)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Trail Blazersavg 92¢	$82.8	$89.6	+$6.8	63% 193-112 (305)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Thunderavg 37.8¢	$83.71	$78.65	-$5.06	48% 233-254 (487)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 61¢	$40.16	$48.72	+$8.56
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 37.8¢	$43.55	$29.93	-$13.62
PA Pan9XCTR	Thunderavg 37.1¢	$116.35	$54.8	-$36.49	48% 512-544 (1056)
RN1CTR<$100	Thunderavg 6.5¢	$5.85	$9	+$3.15	57% 3877-2879 (6756)

SunlineTicker

Trail Blazers

Invested

$10,622.41

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

70%

1660-708 (2368)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3,482.38

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$900.22

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3,698.57

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$192.86

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

forecastication4

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,168.2

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$297

Record

13%

28-196 (224)

purplegattoCTR

Thunder

Invested

$909.87

Value

$606.46

PnL

-$303.41

Record

69%

2576-1173 (3749)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$235.02

Value

$336.22

PnL

+$101.2

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

38791873984189CTR

Thunder

Invested

$171.38

Value

$117.26

PnL

-$54.12

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

takeormakeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$166.38

Value

$113.36

PnL

-$53.02

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Trail Blazers

Invested

$115.72

Value

$91.71

PnL

-$15.73

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

suitcase6628<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$82.8

Value

$89.6

PnL

+$6.8

Record

63%

193-112 (305)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$83.71

Value

$78.65

PnL

-$5.06

Record

48%

233-254 (487)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$40.1661¢+$8.56

Thunder$43.5537.8¢-$13.62

Pan9XCTR

Thunder

Invested

$116.35

Value

$54.8

PnL

-$36.49

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

RN1CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5.85

Value

PnL

+$3.15

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.