Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Thunder, while the market favors Trail Blazers (94%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (75%) · Thunder at 6.5¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers94¢Thunder6¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 6.5¢

-86% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 94%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers94%

Thunder7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder9 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares9,262

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,457

Combined PnL-$3.68

Thunder — 75%Trail Blazers — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 40.5¢	$4.0K	$5.0K	+$2.0K	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 66.9¢	$4.8K	$3.8K	-$987.34	56% 563-451 (1014)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Trail Blazersavg 58.3¢	$1.4K	$2.4K	+$970.28	62% 2398-1492 (3890)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Thunderavg 64.1¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$209.81	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Thunderavg 24.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$865.73	53% 234-204 (438)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 24.3¢	$511.76	$620.47	+$177.2
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 31.1¢	$243.39	$551.24	+$688.52
38 38791873984189CTR	Thunderavg 51¢	$843.47	$480.71	-$236.03	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
RN1ARB<$100	Thunderavg 84.6¢	$559.81	$422.4	-$137.41	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 84.6¢	$538.68	$315.19	-$223.5
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 10¢	$21.13	$107.21	+$86.08
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 83¢	$185.09	$198.47	+$13.38	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Thunderavg 50¢	$78.75	$77.96	-$0.79	29% 332-810 (1142)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Thunderavg 43¢	$37.84	$43.12	+$5.28	48% 203-219 (422)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 42.5¢	$70.86	$40.67	+$2.62	48% 512-544 (1056)
CI cigarettesCTR	Thunderavg 39.9¢	$131.62	$39.77	-$91.85	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Thunderavg 49.8¢	$31.94	$30.83	-$1.11	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Thunderavg 41.4¢	$133.48	$6.44	-$127.04	30% 326-779 (1105)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$4,011.53

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4,758.78

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$987.34

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,425.03

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$970.28

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

6512395314597884CTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,574.42

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$209.81

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,260.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$865.73

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

Both legs:

Thunder$511.7624.3¢+$177.2

Trail Blazers$243.3931.1¢+$688.52

38791873984189CTR

Thunder

Invested

$843.47

Value

$480.71

PnL

-$236.03

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

RN1ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$559.81

Value

$422.4

PnL

-$137.41

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Both legs:

Thunder$538.6884.6¢-$223.5

Trail Blazers$21.1310¢+$86.08

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$185.09

Value

$198.47

PnL

+$13.38

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

LimousinCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$78.75

Value

$77.96

PnL

-$0.79

Record

29%

332-810 (1142)

lryyyCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$37.84

Value

$43.12

PnL

+$5.28

Record

48%

203-219 (422)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$70.86

Value

$40.67

PnL

+$2.62

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

cigarettesCTR

Thunder

Invested

$131.62

Value

$39.77

PnL

-$91.85

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$31.94

Value

$30.83

PnL

-$1.11

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

MadridTimeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$133.48

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$127.04

Record

30%

326-779 (1105)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 94%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.