Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Thunder, while the market favors Trail Blazers (55%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (67%) · Thunder at 46¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12

Trail Blazers55¢Thunder45¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 67%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$163.75

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 45.5¢

-14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 55%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers55%

Thunder46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder8 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares10,132

Combined PnL-$749.81

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,155

Combined PnL+$586.06

Thunder — 67%Trail Blazers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (11 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Thunderavg 53¢	$3.9K	$3.3K	-$514	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
HI hi774cCTR	Thunderavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$205.43	14% 76-472 (548)
VeryLucky888	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$5.0K	$1.1K	+$501.17	52% 472-438 (910)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Trail Blazersavg 53¢	$659.41	$684.29	+$24.88	53% 1833-1635 (3468)
MA MadridTime	Trail Blazersavg 48.1¢	$298.9	$338.42	+$39.52	31% 389-859 (1248)
38 38791873984189CTR	Thunderavg 52¢	$168.44	$141.8	-$21.84	48% 1401-1536 (2937)
LI Limousin	Trail Blazersavg 46.9¢	$119.12	$139.61	+$20.49	30% 384-884 (1268)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Thunderavg 51¢	$79.54	$70.18	-$9.36	18% 48-217 (265)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 53¢	$25.28	$17	+$1.12	49% 678-717 (1395)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Thunderavg 45¢	$4.91	$4.91	+$0	38% 137-223 (360)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Thunderavg 48¢	$2.43	$2.28	-$0.15	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Thunderavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.25	-$0.15	38% 358-588 (946)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Thunder

Invested

$3,851.82

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$514

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

hi774cCTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,361

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$205.43

Record

14%

76-472 (548)

VeryLucky888

Trail Blazers

Invested

$5,048.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$501.17

Record

52%

472-438 (910)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Trail Blazers

Invested

$659.41

Value

$684.29

PnL

+$24.88

Record

53%

1833-1635 (3468)

MadridTime

Trail Blazers

Invested

$298.9

Value

$338.42

PnL

+$39.52

Record

31%

389-859 (1248)

38791873984189CTR

Thunder

Invested

$168.44

Value

$141.8

PnL

-$21.84

Record

48%

1401-1536 (2937)

Limousin

Trail Blazers

Invested

$119.12

Value

$139.61

PnL

+$20.49

Record

30%

384-884 (1268)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$79.54

Value

$70.18

PnL

-$9.36

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$25.28

Value

$17

PnL

+$1.12

Record

49%

678-717 (1395)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

sentrioCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

358-588 (946)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 55%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (11 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.