Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$43.7

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 59¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,867

Combined PnL+$117.66

Under6 traders

Total Value$727.43

Total Shares1,710

Combined PnL-$73.96

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 54.1¢	$604.58	$687.6	+$83.02	55% 719-584 (1303)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 46¢	$565.79	$510.44	-$55.35	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$353.12	$358.82	+$5.7	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$195.27	$182.7	-$12.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$157.85	$176.12	+$18.27
RN1	Overavg 54.1¢	$286.7	$320.91	+$34.2	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 54¢	$108	$109	+$1	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 46.1¢	$119.73	$107.86	-$11.87	31% 410-897 (1307)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$61.1	$51.35	-$9.75	31% 410-923 (1333)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$39.98	$42.23	+$2.25	49% 692-733 (1425)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$11.4	$12.1	+$0.7	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56¢	$3.15	$3.46	+$0.31	55% 680-552 (1232)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$3.39	$3.44	+$0.05	53% 290-259 (549)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 46¢	$5.13	$3.15	-$0.55	52% 497-452 (949)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$1.98	-$0.32	34% 327-634 (961)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$604.58

Value

$687.6

PnL

+$83.02

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$565.79

Value

$510.44

PnL

-$55.35

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$353.12

Value

$358.82

PnL

+$5.7

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

Under$195.2746.5¢-$12.57

Over$157.8550.6¢+$18.27

RN1

Over

Invested

$286.7

Value

$320.91

PnL

+$34.2

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$108

Value

$109

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$119.73

Value

$107.86

PnL

-$11.87

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.1

Value

$51.35

PnL

-$9.75

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.98

Value

$42.23

PnL

+$2.25

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.4

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$0.7

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.46

PnL

+$0.31

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$5.13

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.55

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.32

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.