Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (43%) · Jazz at 57¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 5

Pelicans43¢Jazz57¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$77.75

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 57¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans43%

Jazz57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,031

Combined PnL+$81.97

Pelicans4 traders

Total Value$188.95

Total Shares331

Combined PnL-$4.21

Jazz — 43%Pelicans — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 59.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$59.34	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pelicansavg 41.1¢	$828.7	$855.61	+$26.91	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 41.1¢	$626.31	$549.05	-$77.26
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49.5¢	$237.08	$306.56	+$104.17
BR BreakTheBank	Jazzavg 41¢	$301.36	$323.41	+$22.05	44% 624-798 (1422)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Pelicansavg 53¢	$207.05	$174.85	-$67.02	53% 4711-4219 (8930)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 53¢	$105.47	$94.52	-$45.77
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 66.4¢	$101.58	$80.33	-$21.25
RN1CTR	Pelicansavg 58¢	$145	$142.5	-$2.5	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 58.2¢	$23.29	$22.8	-$0.49	61% 2426-1548 (3974)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 60.2¢	$21.97	$20.8	-$1.17	60% 4424-2918 (7342)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Jazzavg 58¢	$8.28	$8.85	+$0.57	48% 5307-5802 (11109)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.85	-$0.05	52% 8633-7856 (16489)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$1,613.37

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$59.34

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$828.7

Value

$855.61

PnL

+$26.91

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

Both legs:

Pelicans$626.3141.1¢-$77.26

Jazz$237.0849.5¢+$104.17

BreakTheBank

Jazz

Invested

$301.36

Value

$323.41

PnL

+$22.05

Record

44%

624-798 (1422)

takeormakeARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$207.05

Value

$174.85

PnL

-$67.02

Record

53%

4711-4219 (8930)

Both legs:

Pelicans$105.4753¢-$45.77

Jazz$101.5866.4¢-$21.25

RN1CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$145

Value

$142.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$23.29

Value

$22.8

PnL

-$0.49

Record

61%

2426-1548 (3974)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$21.97

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$1.17

Record

60%

4424-2918 (7342)

SlickRick123<$100

Jazz

Invested

$8.28

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$0.57

Record

48%

5307-5802 (11109)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.