Spread: Pistons (-11.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (36%) · Wizards at 60¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10

Pistons41¢Wizards59¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$114.83

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons41%

Wizards60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares10,618

Combined PnL+$285.44

Pistons7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,966

Combined PnL-$170.61

Wizards — 36%Pistons — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPistons 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pistonsavg 44¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$172.03	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 44¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$208.64
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 58.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$36.61
nigiri99	Wizardsavg 56.3¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$198.86	42% 28-38 (66)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Wizardsavg 59¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$56.62	6% 25-411 (436)
RollAwayTheDew	Wizardsavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$29.52	1% 1-78 (79)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pistonsavg 44.2¢	$1.1K	$980.67	-$117.33	48% 61-65 (126)
RN1CTR	Pistonsavg 44.2¢	$303.92	$278.58	-$25.33	54% 235-203 (438)
NM NM-PCTR	Pistonsavg 44¢	$154	$141.75	-$12.25	6% 11-164 (175)
GC GC-PCTR	Pistonsavg 44¢	$154	$141.75	-$12.25	5% 11-190 (201)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Wizardsavg 59¢	$51.92	$52.36	+$0.44	4% 5-123 (128)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 46¢	$22.14	$21.33	-$0.81	45% 38-47 (85)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 45.7¢	$37	$14.62	-$2.28	48% 174-190 (364)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.05	-$0.35	19% 44-191 (235)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$3,202.69

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$172.03

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Pistons$2,04044¢-$208.64

Wizards$1,162.6958.7¢+$36.61

nigiri99

Wizards

Invested

$2,697.89

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$198.86

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Wizards

Invested

$2,227.02

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$56.62

Record

25-411 (436)

RollAwayTheDew

Wizards

Invested

$1,160.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$29.52

Record

1-78 (79)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pistons

Invested

$1,107.02

Value

$980.67

PnL

-$117.33

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

RN1CTR

Pistons

Invested

$303.92

Value

$278.58

PnL

-$25.33

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

NM-PCTR

Pistons

Invested

$154

Value

$141.75

PnL

-$12.25

Record

11-164 (175)

GC-PCTR

Pistons

Invested

$154

Value

$141.75

PnL

-$12.25

Record

11-190 (201)

SunlineTicker<$100

Wizards

Invested

$51.92

Value

$52.36

PnL

+$0.44

Record

5-123 (128)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$22.14

Value

$21.33

PnL

-$0.81

Record

45%

38-47 (85)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$37

Value

$14.62

PnL

-$2.28

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.35

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPistons 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.