Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Wizards (56%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pacers (-4.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (82%) · Pacers at 44¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 12

Pacers44¢Wizards56¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$56.81

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 43.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pacers44%

Wizards56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers9 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares16,590

Combined PnL+$5.45

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,434

Combined PnL+$51.36

Pacers — 82%Wizards — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pacersavg 44¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$63.61	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Wizardsavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$51.43	54% 521-440 (961)
LI LimousinCTR	Pacersavg 46¢	$1.0K	$988.28	-$44.72	30% 399-910 (1309)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Pacersavg 46¢	$459.4	$439.43	-$19.97	31% 406-905 (1311)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Wizardsavg 62¢	$227.11	$220.81	-$6.3	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 62¢	$140.12	$136.73	-$3.39
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 40.9¢	$86.99	$84.08	-$2.91
MA MadridTimeCTR	Pacersavg 46¢	$135.02	$129.15	-$5.87	31% 405-886 (1291)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pacersavg 44.5¢	$126.66	$127.63	+$0.97	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 44.5¢	$65.1	$64.36	-$0.74
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 54¢	$61.56	$63.27	+$1.71
RN1CTR	Pacersavg 38¢	$87.73	$100.49	+$12.75	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pacersavg 44¢	$18.92	$18.92	+$0	46% 292-339 (631)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pacersavg 44¢	$16.28	$16.28	+$0	49% 684-724 (1408)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pacersavg 46¢	$7.93	$7.59	-$0.34	31% 407-907 (1314)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Wizardsavg 56¢	$5.05	$4.98	-$0.07	33% 317-631 (948)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Pacersavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.79	-$0	21% 99-382 (481)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pacers

Invested

$5,597.6

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$63.61

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Wizards

Invested

$1,851.51

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$51.43

Record

54%

521-440 (961)

LimousinCTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,033

Value

$988.28

PnL

-$44.72

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

LightParadoxCTR

Pacers

Invested

$459.4

Value

$439.43

PnL

-$19.97

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$227.11

Value

$220.81

PnL

-$6.3

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Both legs:

Wizards$140.1262¢-$3.39

Pacers$86.9940.9¢-$2.91

MadridTimeCTR

Pacers

Invested

$135.02

Value

$129.15

PnL

-$5.87

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$126.66

Value

$127.63

PnL

+$0.97

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Pacers$65.144.5¢-$0.74

Wizards$61.5654¢+$1.71

RN1CTR

Pacers

Invested

$87.73

Value

$100.49

PnL

+$12.75

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$18.92

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$16.28

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.59

PnL

-$0.34

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

ameisgoat11<$100

Wizards

Invested

$5.05

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.07

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

GC-PCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$0

Record

21%

99-382 (481)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.