Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 74¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$3.05

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 74¢

+24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,415

Combined PnL+$61.49

Over5 traders

Total Value$843.19

Total Shares2,401

Combined PnL-$58.43

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 56.2¢	$823.27	$841.94	+$18.67	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 56.8¢	$496.68	$488.35	-$8.33	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.8¢	$281.4	$259.88	-$21.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.8¢	$215.28	$228.48	+$13.19
RN1	Underavg 71.5¢	$448.05	$463.98	+$15.93	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 44¢	$323.22	$312.2	-$11.02	46% 292-339 (631)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 32.6¢	$297.76	$251.39	-$46.37	55% 718-583 (1301)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 42¢	$198.24	$200.6	+$2.36	31% 406-905 (1311)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 52¢	$72.8	$101.5	+$28.7	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 52¢	$57.69	$58.25	+$0.55	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$48	$45	-$3	50% 3299-3255 (6554)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$34.4	$34	-$0.4	67% 1661-813 (2474)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 51¢	$28.32	$29.16	+$0.83	45% 182-223 (405)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 58¢	$44.45	$11.95	-$3.2	49% 684-724 (1408)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$823.27

Value

$841.94

PnL

+$18.67

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$496.68

Value

$488.35

PnL

-$8.33

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Under$281.456.8¢-$21.52

Over$215.2844.8¢+$13.19

RN1

Under

Invested

$448.05

Value

$463.98

PnL

+$15.93

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$323.22

Value

$312.2

PnL

-$11.02

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$297.76

Value

$251.39

PnL

-$46.37

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$198.24

Value

$200.6

PnL

+$2.36

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$72.8

Value

$101.5

PnL

+$28.7

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$57.69

Value

$58.25

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$45

PnL

-$3

Record

50%

3299-3255 (6554)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.4

Value

$34

PnL

-$0.4

Record

67%

1661-813 (2474)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$28.32

Value

$29.16

PnL

+$0.83

Record

45%

182-223 (405)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$44.45

Value

$11.95

PnL

-$3.2

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.