Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$396.94

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 91.8¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 92%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,844

Combined PnL+$169.57

No2 traders

Total Value$421.7

Total Shares5,477

Combined PnL+$227.37

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

384h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 79.4¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$198.45	50% 415-417 (832)
AV aviato	Yesavg 92.7¢	$400.86	$397.63	-$3.23	84% 2440-449 (2889)
Warren-Buffett	Yesavg 97.8¢	$293.4	$276.9	-$19.95	65% 862-465 (1327)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 4.2¢	$117.67	$262.98	+$145.31	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
BigMackyGCTR	Noavg 5.1¢	$76.66	$158.72	+$82.06	20% 108-423 (531)
TH thoodr	Yesavg 94.5¢	$155.85	$152.3	-$3.55	96% 631-24 (655)
XC xcaiox	Yesavg 94.6¢	$115	$106.15	-$2.65	77% 200-61 (261)
libratus1<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$77.51	$79.49	+$1.33	63% 642-372 (1014)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$68.26	$67.42	-$0.84	53% 6690-5888 (12578)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$1,330.04

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$198.45

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

aviato

Yes

Invested

$400.86

Value

$397.63

PnL

-$3.23

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

Warren-Buffett

Yes

Invested

$293.4

Value

$276.9

PnL

-$19.95

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$117.67

Value

$262.98

PnL

+$145.31

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

BigMackyGCTR

Invested

$76.66

Value

$158.72

PnL

+$82.06

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$155.85

Value

$152.3

PnL

-$3.55

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

xcaiox

Yes

Invested

$115

Value

$106.15

PnL

-$2.65

Record

77%

200-61 (261)

libratus1<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.51

Value

$79.49

PnL

+$1.33

Record

63%

642-372 (1014)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.26

Value

$67.42

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

6690-5888 (12578)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 92%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

384h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.1%

91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.