Spread: Cowboys (-13.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (57%) · Cardinals at 99¢ · $17K held

Cowboys<1¢Cardinals>99¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cardinals

Consensus Traders

Cardinals 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

$424.8

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 99.1¢

+87% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys1%

Cardinals99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cardinals4 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares16,182

Combined PnL+$498.45

Cowboys3 traders

Total Value$209.91

Total Shares495

Combined PnL-$73.65

Cardinals — 57%Cowboys — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Cardinalsavg 53.5¢	$10.1K	$10.6K	+$482.33	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 57.4¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$56.63	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 57.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$36.63
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 41¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$20
LI lightotunnel35	Cardinalsavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$12.91	58% 78-56 (134)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Cowboysavg 57.1¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$249.18	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 57.1¢	$915.69	$553.5	-$362.19
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 50.9¢	$394.34	$507.35	+$113.01
TO topdogbigboi	Cardinalsavg 58.4¢	$239.73	$269.01	+$29.28	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
TA takeormakeCTR	Cowboysavg 58.5¢	$257.6	$204.69	-$52.91	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 48¢	$5.28	$5.23	-$0.06	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
RL RLWG<$100	Cardinalsavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.8	-$0.25	50% 7981-8012 (15993)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 47¢	$20.68	—	-$20.68	50% 3948-3932 (7880)

RN1

Cardinals

Invested

$10,126.04

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$482.33

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Anon455ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$3,629.66

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$56.63

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Cowboys$1,989.6657.4¢+$36.63

Cardinals$1,64041¢+$20

lightotunnel35

Cardinals

Invested

$1,264.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$12.91

Record

58%

78-56 (134)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$1,310.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$249.18

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Both legs:

Cowboys$915.6957.1¢-$362.19

Cardinals$394.3450.9¢+$113.01

topdogbigboi

Cardinals

Invested

$239.73

Value

$269.01

PnL

+$29.28

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

takeormakeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$257.6

Value

$204.69

PnL

-$52.91

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.23

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

RLWG<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

7981-8012 (15993)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$20.68

Value

—

PnL

-$20.68

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cardinals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.