Spread: Bills (-14.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (63%) · Bills at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1

Bills>99¢Ravens<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$434.62

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 99.6¢

+135% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills100%

Ravens0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,110

Combined PnL+$572.56

Ravens3 traders

Total Value$514.03

Total Shares787

Combined PnL-$137.94

Bills — 63%Ravens — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Billsavg 77¢	$2.9K	$2.1K	-$815.66	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 77¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$89.91
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 55¢	$1.4K	$458.99	-$905.56
PR primm	Billsavg 45¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$1.3	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
AN Anon455	Billsavg 35.8¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$570.94	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Ravensavg 83¢	$534.52	$457.24	-$77.28	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
AM AmericaFirst1	Billsavg 45¢	$408.84	$399.75	-$9.09	62% 2198-1345 (3543)
TO topdogbigboi	Billsavg 53.3¢	$229.47	$238.54	+$9.07	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Ravensavg 64.1¢	$102.35	$42.92	-$59.43	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Ravensavg 60.4¢	$15.1	$13.88	-$1.22	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
TA takeormake<$100	Billsavg 44¢	$3.27	$3.61	+$0.33	53% 4278-3736 (8014)

RN1ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$2,903.01

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$815.66

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

Bills$1,538.4677¢+$89.91

Ravens$1,364.5555¢-$905.56

primm

Bills

Invested

$2,002.1

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.3

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

Anon455

Bills

Invested

$1,271.45

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$570.94

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

UpTheBluesCTR

Ravens

Invested

$534.52

Value

$457.24

PnL

-$77.28

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

AmericaFirst1

Bills

Invested

$408.84

Value

$399.75

PnL

-$9.09

Record

62%

2198-1345 (3543)

topdogbigboi

Bills

Invested

$229.47

Value

$238.54

PnL

+$9.07

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

justaluckydudeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$102.35

Value

$42.92

PnL

-$59.43

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$15.1

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$1.22

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

takeormake<$100

Bills

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.