Spread: Bills (-5.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (67%) · Bills at 72¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 1

Bills72¢Ravens28¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 67%

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 71.5¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills72%

Ravens28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills6 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares27,333

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Ravens3 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares10,052

Combined PnL+$313.37

Bills — 67%Ravens — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Billsavg 68¢	$13.6K	$8.2K	$-5.4K	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
AN Anon455	Billsavg 66.6¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$162.9	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
TA takeormakeCTR	Ravensavg 59¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$0	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
RN1CTR	Ravensavg 48.1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$312.59	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
SU SunlineTicker	Billsavg 41¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Billsavg 68¢	$43.1	$44.05	+$0.95	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Billsavg 41¢	$41	$41	+$0	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Billsavg 51¢	$4.37	$3.51	-$0.86	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Ravensavg 32¢	$4.8	$1.14	+$0.78	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

Nooserac

Bills

Invested

$13,615.57

Value

$8.2K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

Anon455

Bills

Invested

$4,476.92

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$162.9

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

takeormakeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$4,244.72

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

RN1CTR

Ravens

Invested

$1,372.32

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$312.59

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

SunlineTicker

Bills

Invested

$1,531.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

topdogbigboi<$100

Bills

Invested

$43.1

Value

$44.05

PnL

+$0.95

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

UpTheBlues<$100

Bills

Invested

$41

Value

$41

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Bills

Invested

$4.37

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.86

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$4.8

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.78

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.