Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bills, while the market favors Vikings (55%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Bills (-4.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (25%) · Bills at 46¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 10

Bills46¢Vikings54¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 25%

Total Value

$51.4K

Combined PnL

$437.82

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 45.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills46%

Vikings55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills3 traders

Total Value$32.2K

Total Shares70,856

Combined PnL+$844.91

Vikings9 traders

Total Value$19.2K

Total Shares35,158

Combined PnL-$407.08

Bills — 25%Vikings — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpVikings 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrVikings 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Billsavg 44.8¢	$23.2K	$23.6K	+$377.73	40% 333-506 (839)
PR primm	Vikingsavg 55¢	$9.8K	$9.7K	-$88.87	16% 18-93 (111)
TA takeormakeCTR	Billsavg 43¢	$8.0K	$8.5K	+$465.17	27% 84-223 (307)
HO HomeRunHazard	Vikingsavg 57¢	$7.0K	$6.7K	-$306.26	30% 29-67 (96)
38 38791873984189	Vikingsavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$15.04	49% 383-404 (787)
VeryLucky888	Vikingsavg 54.7¢	$457.97	$456.5	-$1.46	49% 60-63 (123)
NM NM-P	Vikingsavg 54¢	$270	$272.5	+$2.5	6% 11-164 (175)
GC GC-P	Vikingsavg 54¢	$270	$272.5	+$2.5	5% 11-190 (201)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Billsavg 45¢	$180	$182	+$2	5% 21-415 (436)
0xheavy888	Vikingsavg 54.5¢	$122.07	$122.07	+$0	69% 29-13 (42)
QI qidao001<$100	Vikingsavg 55¢	$19.28	$19.1	-$0.18	75% 18-6 (24)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vikingsavg 55.6¢	$26	$14.17	-$0.28	48% 173-188 (361)

BreakTheBankCTR

Bills

Invested

$23,213.68

Value

$23.6K

PnL

+$377.73

Record

40%

333-506 (839)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$9,777.77

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$88.87

Record

16%

18-93 (111)

takeormakeCTR

Bills

Invested

$8,001

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$465.17

Record

27%

84-223 (307)

HomeRunHazard

Vikings

Invested

$6,982.99

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$306.26

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

38791873984189

Vikings

Invested

$1,653.85

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$15.04

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

VeryLucky888

Vikings

Invested

$457.97

Value

$456.5

PnL

-$1.46

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

NM-P

Vikings

Invested

$270

Value

$272.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

11-164 (175)

GC-P

Vikings

Invested

$270

Value

$272.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

11-190 (201)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Bills

Invested

$180

Value

$182

PnL

+$2

Record

21-415 (436)

0xheavy888

Vikings

Invested

$122.07

Value

$122.07

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

qidao001<$100

Vikings

Invested

$19.28

Value

$19.1

PnL

-$0.18

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

Pan9X<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26

Value

$14.17

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpVikings 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrVikings 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.