Spread: Bills (-5.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (77%) · Vikings at 57¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 10

Bills43¢Vikings57¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 77%

Total Value

$19.4K

Combined PnL

$53.56

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bills43%

Vikings57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings10 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares23,167

Combined PnL-$25.38

Bills3 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares14,169

Combined PnL+$78.95

Vikings — 77%Bills — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBills 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Vikingsavg 57.2¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$24.24	49% 383-404 (787)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Billsavg 42¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$50.4	6% 25-409 (434)
ME metski29	Vikingsavg 58¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$36.64	0% 0-23 (23)
HO HomeRunHazard	Vikingsavg 58¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$14.13	30% 29-67 (96)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Billsavg 41¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$36.74	44% 34-43 (77)
VeryLucky888	Vikingsavg 57¢	$868.09	$876.7	+$8.61	49% 60-63 (123)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Billsavg 43¢	$704.77	$696.57	-$8.2	4% 5-123 (128)
nigiri99	Vikingsavg 58.6¢	$645.74	$633.65	-$12.09	43% 28-37 (65)
GC GC-P	Vikingsavg 57.3¢	$404.59	$406.06	+$1.47	5% 11-190 (201)
NM NM-P	Vikingsavg 57¢	$285	$287.5	+$2.5	6% 11-164 (175)
0xheavy888<$100	Vikingsavg 57¢	$63.84	$64.4	+$0.56	69% 29-13 (42)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Vikingsavg 57¢	$19.88	$20.06	+$0.17	5% 21-415 (436)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vikingsavg 58¢	$15	$8.63	-$0.08	48% 173-188 (361)

38791873984189

Vikings

Invested

$5,180.86

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$24.24

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Bills

Invested

$4,233.85

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$50.4

Record

25-409 (434)

metski29

Vikings

Invested

$4,250

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$36.64

Record

0-23 (23)

HomeRunHazard

Vikings

Invested

$1,639.08

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$14.13

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Siddhartha1CTR

Bills

Invested

$1,004.18

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$36.74

Record

44%

34-43 (77)

VeryLucky888

Vikings

Invested

$868.09

Value

$876.7

PnL

+$8.61

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

SunlineTickerCTR

Bills

Invested

$704.77

Value

$696.57

PnL

-$8.2

Record

5-123 (128)

nigiri99

Vikings

Invested

$645.74

Value

$633.65

PnL

-$12.09

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

GC-P

Vikings

Invested

$404.59

Value

$406.06

PnL

+$1.47

Record

11-190 (201)

NM-P

Vikings

Invested

$285

Value

$287.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

11-164 (175)

0xheavy888<$100

Vikings

Invested

$63.84

Value

$64.4

PnL

+$0.56

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Vikings

Invested

$19.88

Value

$20.06

PnL

+$0.17

Record

21-415 (436)

Pan9X<$100

Vikings

Invested

$15

Value

$8.63

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBills 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.